Storm Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

657 
FZAK52 PAFC 041236
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM ADAK TO 100 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO A 969 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE FRI
EVENING THEN WEAKEN TO 971 MB OVER SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND SAT MORNING.
A 966 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 130 NM NORTHWEST OF
ADAK LATE FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN TO 971 MB 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-050300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-050300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-050300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-050300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT 40 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 14 FT
BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 14 FT
BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT SE FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-050300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

799 
FZAK52 PAFC 050025
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES WEST AND BECOMES A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BEARING SEA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB 210 NM WEST OF ADAK AND MERGES WITH A
DEVELOPING 967 MB LOW 60 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...12
FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF
DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.SUN SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 30 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 14
FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE..18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1245 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING
SEA...SETTING UP DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. A
977 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BERING IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND
CURVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THIS IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. MOST OF THE ACTION
IS FURTHER EAST...WHERE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT INCHES
NORTHWARD...DOWNSLOPING IS BEGINNING TO MANIFEST OVER THE WESTERN
KENAI...LIMITING SNOWFALL TO LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES AT THE MOMENT.
WINDS ARE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS OF TURNAGAIN
ARM AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AS THE FRONT BRINGS STRONG SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE OVERALL TREND OF BOTH THE LOW AND THE FRONT
IS WEAKENING...AS THE LIMITED JET SUPPORT THE SYSTEM HAD IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING. OUT WEST...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AS A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH A
FEW DETAILS WITHIN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW
SPINNING UP WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS TAKING THE ENERGY TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF...WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE ENERGY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OUT WEST...AND THE JET REMAINING FAR TO THE SOUTH...THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW WILL SPLIT INTO TWO CIRCULATIONS AS IT
WEAKENS...WITH ONE GOING NORTH AND ONE GOING EAST. THE GFS IS A
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION WITH THIS EVOLUTION...AND WAS FAVORED FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. OUT WEST...ANOTHER LARGE AND COMPLEX
LOW DEVELOPS BY THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. THE ECMWF WAS
THE FAVORED MODEL AS IT SUGGESTS MULTIPLE WEAKER LOWS AS OPPOSED TO
ONE STRONGER LOW...A SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN VERY COMMON IN THIS
PATTERN LATELY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WATCHING THE
GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA. MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHETHER DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE WESTERN KENAI
AND ANCHORAGE BOWL DRY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING IS HOLDING FIRM AS THE FRONT INCHES
NORTHWARD. WILL RUN WITH GENERALLY A DRIER FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO FALL APART. WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION WILL LARGELY ABATE ON FRIDAY AS NO LOWS OR FRONTS WILL
MOVE BACK IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER LOW WEAKENING ALONG THE COAST AND
DRIFTING BACK INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE BERING SEA AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT LOW...AND NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE
BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...FAIRLY STRONG LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BRING GENERALLY GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE
HEADING INTO THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND
WILL BREAK UP INTO MULTIPLE (WEAKER) LOW PRESSURE CENTERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA BRINGING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES TO
MOST AREAS. SEVERAL MORE WEATHER FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE COASTLINES...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 175
         GALE 150 155 172 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 13