Gale Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

825 
FZAK62 PAFC 041239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-050300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM ADAK TO 50N 170W WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
A 969 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE FRI EVENING THEN WEAKEN
TO 971 MB OVER SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND SAT MORNING. A 966 MB LOW NEAR
51N 172E WILL MOVE NEAR 53N 179W LATE FRI NIGHT AT 965 MB THEN WEAKEN
TO 971 MB NEAR 59N 176W LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE TO SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

461 
FZAK62 PAFC 050001
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES WEST AND BECOMES A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BEARING SEA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB NEAR 52N 178E AND MERGES WITH A
DEVELOPING 967 MB LOW NEAR 56N 163W BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT E OF 173W. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SW WIND 30 KT S OF 54N. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SW WIND 35 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 4 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

624 
FZAK62 PAFC 051244
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 MB LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL MOVE TO NEAR 60N 174W AT
974 MB LATE SAT EVENING THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE TO 60N 179W LATE SUN
NIGHT. A 964 MB LOW NEAR 51N 175E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 51N 175W SUN
MORNING AT 980 MB THEN DISSIPATE. A DEEPENING 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR LATE SAT EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
NEAR COLD BAY SUN MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY LATE SUN NIGHT.


$$

PKZ411-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT S 10 TO 20 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT S 20 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF 175W. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NW 10 TO 20 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 5 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

TP

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1245 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING
SEA...SETTING UP DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. A
977 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BERING IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND
CURVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THIS IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. MOST OF THE ACTION
IS FURTHER EAST...WHERE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT INCHES
NORTHWARD...DOWNSLOPING IS BEGINNING TO MANIFEST OVER THE WESTERN
KENAI...LIMITING SNOWFALL TO LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES AT THE MOMENT.
WINDS ARE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS OF TURNAGAIN
ARM AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AS THE FRONT BRINGS STRONG SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE OVERALL TREND OF BOTH THE LOW AND THE FRONT
IS WEAKENING...AS THE LIMITED JET SUPPORT THE SYSTEM HAD IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING. OUT WEST...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AS A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH A
FEW DETAILS WITHIN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW
SPINNING UP WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS TAKING THE ENERGY TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF...WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE ENERGY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OUT WEST...AND THE JET REMAINING FAR TO THE SOUTH...THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW WILL SPLIT INTO TWO CIRCULATIONS AS IT
WEAKENS...WITH ONE GOING NORTH AND ONE GOING EAST. THE GFS IS A
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION WITH THIS EVOLUTION...AND WAS FAVORED FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. OUT WEST...ANOTHER LARGE AND COMPLEX
LOW DEVELOPS BY THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. THE ECMWF WAS
THE FAVORED MODEL AS IT SUGGESTS MULTIPLE WEAKER LOWS AS OPPOSED TO
ONE STRONGER LOW...A SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN VERY COMMON IN THIS
PATTERN LATELY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WATCHING THE
GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA. MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHETHER DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE WESTERN KENAI
AND ANCHORAGE BOWL DRY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING IS HOLDING FIRM AS THE FRONT INCHES
NORTHWARD. WILL RUN WITH GENERALLY A DRIER FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO FALL APART. WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION WILL LARGELY ABATE ON FRIDAY AS NO LOWS OR FRONTS WILL
MOVE BACK IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER LOW WEAKENING ALONG THE COAST AND
DRIFTING BACK INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE BERING SEA AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT LOW...AND NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE
BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...FAIRLY STRONG LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BRING GENERALLY GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE
HEADING INTO THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND
WILL BREAK UP INTO MULTIPLE (WEAKER) LOW PRESSURE CENTERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA BRINGING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES TO
MOST AREAS. SEVERAL MORE WEATHER FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE COASTLINES...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 175
         GALE 150 155 172 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 13