Storm Warning 59, NWS Anchorage, AK

951 
FZAK61 PAFC 061220
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070300-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WED EVENING AND THEN 
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT. A 958 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
TO 59N 165W AND WEAKEN TO 968 MB THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

484 
FZAK61 PAFC 070004
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071500-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF TONIGHT AND MOVE 
TO THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF THU AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL 
THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE THU NIGHT. A 960 MB LOW SOUTH 
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN TO 981 MB AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING 18 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

963 
FZAK61 PAFC 071250
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080300-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE ONSHORE TONIGHT. A 957
MB LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT
MOVES TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

622 
FZAK61 PAFC 072355
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT. A 960 MB LOW JUST 
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN TO 977 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-081500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
TO 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-081500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU MAR 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1245 PM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED OVER SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA. THERE WAS LITTLE PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT
OVERNIGHT...BUT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING PRODUCING STEADIER AND HEAVIER AREAS
OF PRECIP. MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR
IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. BENIGN CONDITIONS
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL COME FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WHERE
A LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175KT PLUS
UPPER LEVEL JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MINOR TRACK ISSUES WITH
THE DEVELOPING PACIFIC SYSTEM. WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 960S PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AS DEPICTED BY
THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET MODELS. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
SO WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE TAIL END PRODUCING WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION. THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL TAKE A TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA PUSHING
A STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS A CLASSIC SET-UP FOR STRONG GAP WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS. MODEL
FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR REACHING HIGH
WIND THRESHOLDS ALONG WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM...SO WILL ISSUE A WATCH
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS MEANS THE
BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE WEST SIDE
OF COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY SO HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE
WESTERN SUSITNA WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. THE OTHER
POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.
EVEN THOUGH FRONT WILL BE OCCLUDING AS IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL
EXPECT COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING TO PRODUCE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA...ASIDE FROM STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO INITIALLY SUPPORT
SNOW. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WHEN IT FIRST ARRIVES.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD PACE WHEN IT FIRST REACHES
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SO WARMER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN. THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THERE IS WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE A BRIEF BLIZZARD. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
WHERE AIR MASS WILL START OUT A LITTLE COLDER AND WHERE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL HOLD IN LONGER. AREAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
(FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS) WILL HAVE A
MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO SOUTHWEST ALASK
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE A STRONG
BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS STORM TRACK WILL BE HELD WEST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 185.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...132 150 155 160 170.
         GALE WARNING 130 138 165 171 172 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 13