Gale Warning 224, NWS Anchorage, AK

210 
FZAK62 PAFC 061245
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070300-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAND POINT AS
IT INTENSIFIES TO 958 MB THU MORNING...THEN TO 59N 165W AS IT WEAKENS
TO 968 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT DURING THE
EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N TO NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 070011
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071500-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 MB LOW NEAR 50N 166W WILL MOVE TO 55N 161W THU AFTERNOON 
AND THEN WEAKEN TO 981 MB AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF 178E. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT N 20 TO 30 W OF 177W. SEAS 6 TO 10
FT...EXCEPT 11 TO 16 FT E OF 177W. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE ICE
EDGE.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 KT W OF 177W. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT 13 TO 17 FT E OF 177W. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE ICE EDGE. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 30 KT W OF 177W. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 177W. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 KT W OF 177W. SEAS 7 TO
13 FT...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 FT E OF 177W. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 30 KT W OF 177W. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT...EXCEPT 14 TO 19 FT E OF 177W. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT 20 TO 35 KT E OF 167W. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 19 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT 20 TO 35 KT E OF 167W. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 TO 24 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
ICE EDGE. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1245 PM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED OVER SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA. THERE WAS LITTLE PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT
OVERNIGHT...BUT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING PRODUCING STEADIER AND HEAVIER AREAS
OF PRECIP. MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR
IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. BENIGN CONDITIONS
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL COME FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WHERE
A LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175KT PLUS
UPPER LEVEL JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MINOR TRACK ISSUES WITH
THE DEVELOPING PACIFIC SYSTEM. WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 960S PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AS DEPICTED BY
THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET MODELS. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
SO WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE TAIL END PRODUCING WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION. THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL TAKE A TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA PUSHING
A STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS A CLASSIC SET-UP FOR STRONG GAP WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS. MODEL
FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR REACHING HIGH
WIND THRESHOLDS ALONG WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM...SO WILL ISSUE A WATCH
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS MEANS THE
BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE WEST SIDE
OF COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY SO HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE
WESTERN SUSITNA WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. THE OTHER
POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.
EVEN THOUGH FRONT WILL BE OCCLUDING AS IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL
EXPECT COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING TO PRODUCE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA...ASIDE FROM STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO INITIALLY SUPPORT
SNOW. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WHEN IT FIRST ARRIVES.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD PACE WHEN IT FIRST REACHES
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SO WARMER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN. THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THERE IS WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE A BRIEF BLIZZARD. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
WHERE AIR MASS WILL START OUT A LITTLE COLDER AND WHERE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL HOLD IN LONGER. AREAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
(FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS) WILL HAVE A
MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO SOUTHWEST ALASK
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE A STRONG
BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS STORM TRACK WILL BE HELD WEST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 185.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...132 150 155 160 170.
         GALE WARNING 130 138 165 171 172 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 13