Storm Warning 57, NWS Anchorage, AK

058 
FZAK62 PAFC 021208
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 51N 168W WILL MOVE TO 49N 154W AT 999 MB SUN
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A LOW
WILL MOVE TO 50N 164E AT 965 MB SUN MORNING THEN MOVE TO NEAR 55N
170E AT 971 MB EARLY MON MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT NEARS THE
WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS TO THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING EARLY MON.

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 TO 60 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176W. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST OF
176W...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING . 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
$$

963 
FZAK62 PAFC 030018
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 981 MB LOW NEAR 52N 165W WILL WEAKEN TO 1004 MB NEAR 48N 153W SUN
AFTERNOON. A 967 MB LOW NEAR 47N 153E WILL MOVE TO 54N 166E AT 966 MB
SUN AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 974 MB NEAR 57N 173E MON
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 40 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT NE 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT N OF 56N. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING N 15 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON E OF 174W. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$
TP

414 
FZAK62 PAFC 031203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040300-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 50N 156W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND WEAKEN TODAY. A WEAK 999 MB LOW NEAR 56N 156W WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR 56N 160W TONIGHT. A 965 MB LOW NEAR 53N 165E WILL MOVE
TO 59N 173E AT 978 MB EARLY TUE MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN BERING TODAY TO THE EASTERN
BERING LATE MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING N OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ414-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. WEST OF 169W...WINDS BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

277 
FZAK62 PAFC 040015
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 53N 166E WILL WEAKEN TO 986 MB NEAR 61N 172E TUE
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL
MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING BY MON AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 3 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
167W...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKST FRI MAR 1 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE AOR THIS MORNING. A
COLD UPPER-LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTH. AN OLD UPPER-LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND OPENED INTO A
TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND IS FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. SNOW/RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL FALLS ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WITH ONLY A TOUCH OF PRECIP MAKING IT ACROSS THE
CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW 450 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND ALSO FILLING AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER-JET IS DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE GULF
LOWS...UPPER-LVL RIDGING SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
MAINLAND. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES STILL ALLOWS FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES NEAR THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES. BUT OVERALL
OFF-SHORE FLOW IS HELPING TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS (SAVE
FOR THE AKPEN AND WESTERN CAPES)...LEADING TO A PARTICULARLY
COOL/CRISP MORNING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AOR IS A POWERFUL 967 MB SURFACE LOW 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ATKA WHICH IS MOVING EAST. MODERATE SNOW AND STORM TO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ENVELOP THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY ONGOING BETWEEN ADAK AND
KISKA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A STRONG LOW OVER NORTHERN JAPAN WHICH IS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ADEQUATELY CAPTURE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AND HAVE
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS
DEPICTED DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THE LOW 450 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO
AROUND 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATES AHEAD OF THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM'S FRONT WHICH TRACKS TO THE
SW GULF SAT EVENING. THE FRONT THEN STALLS IN PLACE THROUGH
SUN...LIKELY BECAUSE THE RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMES
FAIRLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE PARENT PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SUPPORTING 150 KT UPPER
JET CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. THE PACIFIC LOW
REACHES PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 965 MB THIS AFTERNOON 100 MILES SOUTH
OF ATKA...FILLS AS IT PASSES 150 MILES SOUTH OF UNALASKA ON
SAT...THEN MOVES TO AROUND 400 MILES SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AT 990 MB ON
SUN. THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF JAPAN MEANWHILE TRACKS TO AROUND 400 MILES
WEST OF ATTU ON SUN...WITH IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING THE FAR
WESTERN CHAIN/BERING LATE SAT NIGHT. THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE
GENERALLY LEANED ON THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TOWARDS
GFS/ECMWF INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE SCOPE OF PRECIPITATION
SPILLING OVER THE CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO DOWNSLOPING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHERLY...
BUT DYNAMIC LIFT IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. ALL IN ALL...SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WHAT'S LEFT OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...WITH THE
STEADIEST PRECIP ALONG COASTAL AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE STARVED OF
MOISTURE ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY SAT AND WITH IT'S PASSAGE
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON...ALLOWING FOR
RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS
WEEKEND.

ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR/DRY
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP CLOUDS FROM THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM BEGIN
MOVING IN EARLY SAT WHILE THE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BECOMES MORE ONSHORE
AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO PRECIPITATION BY SAT EVENING.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE SW GULF AND
KODIAK ISLAND...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENTLY SNOWY/RAINY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING WEEKEND. THE FRONT DOES BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AS THE PARENT LOW RETREATS SOUTH OF THE GULF...ALLOWING PRECIP TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY WITH TIME.

SOUTHWEST/AKPEN...
NESTLED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS INITIALLY...SW AK GENERALLY REMAINS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONTAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DURING THE WEEKEND...FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
COASTS/WESTERN CAPES. THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW CONSIDERATIONS
AS WELL...THOUGH WITH QPF ON THE LIGHT SIDE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY
WATCHES/WARNINGS. SOUTH TO EAST WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY
THROUGH FAVORED CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE NOSING TOWARDS
THE AKPEN AT THE TAIL END OF IT'S PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BUT
IT'S ASSOCIATED SQUEEZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH AND HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
AREA WEST OF SAND POINT. PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
SNOW...THOUGH IT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES SOUTH OF BRISTOL BAY WITH
925 TEMPS NEARING 0 CELSIUS. ALL PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW BUT WILL
LIKELY BE MUCH MORE SHOWERY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE LOW SLIPS AWAY
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION FILLS IN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
BLIZZARD THREATS FOR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CHAIN THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE EASTERN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT
SHOULD BE BLUNTED SOMEWHAT BY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW SOME RAIN TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES.
THE EAST WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CHAIN BY THIS
EVENING TURNING ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION AREA.
WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AT THIS JUNCTURE AS WELL...AND
VISIBILITY SHOULD BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY WORSE THAN ANYTHING
EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE EASTERN CHAIN WILL SEE THE FRONT
TRAVERSING AT PEAK INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME LOW TO
MID-LVL INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH FUNNELING FROM TERRAIN SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP TO WARNING LEVELS. COLD AIR WILL BE
SLOWER TO MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CHAIN...AND WITH LESS
LIFT AS TIME WEARS ON...PRECIP INTENSITY EVEN WITH GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
NOT LEAD TO A BLIZZARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS SHOULD STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM (AIDED BY ICE
PACK) AND WITH WINDS RAMPING UP QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW...A
BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED HERE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SOME ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE
FEATURES...BUT OVERALL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
TRENDS. THE BERING/ALEUTIAN CHAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER-TROUGH. THE RESIDUAL FRONT THAT IMPACTS THE WESTERN BERING ON
SUN TRACKS TO THE AKPEN AND SW AK MID NEXT WEEK. THE GULF AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND LOOK TO INITIALLY BE DRY UNDER UPPER-RIDGING...BUT
ENERGY FROM THE BERING SEA MOVING UP AGAINST IT HELPS TO BREAK IT
DOWN MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
ANOTHER POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW IS DEPICTED MOVING UP TOWARDS THE
AKPEN/KODIAK MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...187 191 195
         HIGH WIND WARNING...185
         HIGH WIND WATCH...181
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND...172 175
         STORM...155 170 171 176 413 414
         GALE...132 150 160 165 179 180 185 411 412
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...175 176 411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY