Storm Warning 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

405 
FZAK52 PAFC 021209
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 973 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTH OF UNALASKA WILL MOVE TO 440 NM SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK AT 999 MB SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A 1000 MB LOW WILL FORM 100 NM SOUTH OF CAPE
SITKINAK EARLY SUN MORNING AND DRIFT TO NEAR CHIGNIK BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATE SUN NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE TO AROUND 200 NM
NORTHWEST OF ATTU AT 971 MB EARLY MON MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
NEARS THE WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS TO THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING EARLY MON.
$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 14
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT.  
$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. W OF COLD BAY...WINDS DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO
7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.  
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT.  
$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 10 FT BERING
SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. W OF
ATKA...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.  
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S
30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
SHEMYA W...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT
BECOMING E 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT.  
$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
$$

472 
FZAK52 PAFC 030039
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL WEAKEN TO 1004 MB
550 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT SUN AFTERNOON. A 967 MB LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO 290 NM WEST OF SHEMYA AT
966 MB SUN AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 974 MB 250 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT S 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT E OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-031500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.

.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.

.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF
ATKA...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
ATKA...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. W OF ATKA...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BERING SIDE...SW 45 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS
24 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT
E 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. 
.SUN...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT
BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 40 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-031500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$
TP

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKST FRI MAR 1 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE AOR THIS MORNING. A
COLD UPPER-LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTH. AN OLD UPPER-LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND OPENED INTO A
TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND IS FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. SNOW/RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL FALLS ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WITH ONLY A TOUCH OF PRECIP MAKING IT ACROSS THE
CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW 450 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND ALSO FILLING AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER-JET IS DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE GULF
LOWS...UPPER-LVL RIDGING SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
MAINLAND. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES STILL ALLOWS FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES NEAR THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES. BUT OVERALL
OFF-SHORE FLOW IS HELPING TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS (SAVE
FOR THE AKPEN AND WESTERN CAPES)...LEADING TO A PARTICULARLY
COOL/CRISP MORNING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AOR IS A POWERFUL 967 MB SURFACE LOW 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ATKA WHICH IS MOVING EAST. MODERATE SNOW AND STORM TO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ENVELOP THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY ONGOING BETWEEN ADAK AND
KISKA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A STRONG LOW OVER NORTHERN JAPAN WHICH IS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ADEQUATELY CAPTURE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AND HAVE
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS
DEPICTED DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THE LOW 450 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO
AROUND 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATES AHEAD OF THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM'S FRONT WHICH TRACKS TO THE
SW GULF SAT EVENING. THE FRONT THEN STALLS IN PLACE THROUGH
SUN...LIKELY BECAUSE THE RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMES
FAIRLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE PARENT PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SUPPORTING 150 KT UPPER
JET CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. THE PACIFIC LOW
REACHES PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 965 MB THIS AFTERNOON 100 MILES SOUTH
OF ATKA...FILLS AS IT PASSES 150 MILES SOUTH OF UNALASKA ON
SAT...THEN MOVES TO AROUND 400 MILES SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AT 990 MB ON
SUN. THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF JAPAN MEANWHILE TRACKS TO AROUND 400 MILES
WEST OF ATTU ON SUN...WITH IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING THE FAR
WESTERN CHAIN/BERING LATE SAT NIGHT. THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE
GENERALLY LEANED ON THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TOWARDS
GFS/ECMWF INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE SCOPE OF PRECIPITATION
SPILLING OVER THE CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO DOWNSLOPING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHERLY...
BUT DYNAMIC LIFT IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. ALL IN ALL...SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WHAT'S LEFT OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...WITH THE
STEADIEST PRECIP ALONG COASTAL AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE STARVED OF
MOISTURE ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY SAT AND WITH IT'S PASSAGE
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON...ALLOWING FOR
RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS
WEEKEND.

ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR/DRY
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP CLOUDS FROM THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM BEGIN
MOVING IN EARLY SAT WHILE THE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BECOMES MORE ONSHORE
AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO PRECIPITATION BY SAT EVENING.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE SW GULF AND
KODIAK ISLAND...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENTLY SNOWY/RAINY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING WEEKEND. THE FRONT DOES BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AS THE PARENT LOW RETREATS SOUTH OF THE GULF...ALLOWING PRECIP TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY WITH TIME.

SOUTHWEST/AKPEN...
NESTLED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS INITIALLY...SW AK GENERALLY REMAINS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONTAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DURING THE WEEKEND...FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
COASTS/WESTERN CAPES. THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW CONSIDERATIONS
AS WELL...THOUGH WITH QPF ON THE LIGHT SIDE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY
WATCHES/WARNINGS. SOUTH TO EAST WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY
THROUGH FAVORED CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE NOSING TOWARDS
THE AKPEN AT THE TAIL END OF IT'S PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BUT
IT'S ASSOCIATED SQUEEZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH AND HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
AREA WEST OF SAND POINT. PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
SNOW...THOUGH IT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES SOUTH OF BRISTOL BAY WITH
925 TEMPS NEARING 0 CELSIUS. ALL PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW BUT WILL
LIKELY BE MUCH MORE SHOWERY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE LOW SLIPS AWAY
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION FILLS IN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
BLIZZARD THREATS FOR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CHAIN THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE EASTERN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT
SHOULD BE BLUNTED SOMEWHAT BY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW SOME RAIN TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES.
THE EAST WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CHAIN BY THIS
EVENING TURNING ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION AREA.
WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AT THIS JUNCTURE AS WELL...AND
VISIBILITY SHOULD BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY WORSE THAN ANYTHING
EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE EASTERN CHAIN WILL SEE THE FRONT
TRAVERSING AT PEAK INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME LOW TO
MID-LVL INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH FUNNELING FROM TERRAIN SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP TO WARNING LEVELS. COLD AIR WILL BE
SLOWER TO MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CHAIN...AND WITH LESS
LIFT AS TIME WEARS ON...PRECIP INTENSITY EVEN WITH GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
NOT LEAD TO A BLIZZARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS SHOULD STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM (AIDED BY ICE
PACK) AND WITH WINDS RAMPING UP QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW...A
BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED HERE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SOME ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE
FEATURES...BUT OVERALL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
TRENDS. THE BERING/ALEUTIAN CHAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER-TROUGH. THE RESIDUAL FRONT THAT IMPACTS THE WESTERN BERING ON
SUN TRACKS TO THE AKPEN AND SW AK MID NEXT WEEK. THE GULF AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND LOOK TO INITIALLY BE DRY UNDER UPPER-RIDGING...BUT
ENERGY FROM THE BERING SEA MOVING UP AGAINST IT HELPS TO BREAK IT
DOWN MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
ANOTHER POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW IS DEPICTED MOVING UP TOWARDS THE
AKPEN/KODIAK MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...187 191 195
         HIGH WIND WARNING...185
         HIGH WIND WATCH...181
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND...172 175
         STORM...155 170 171 176 413 414
         GALE...132 150 160 165 179 180 185 411 412
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...175 176 411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY