Storm Warning 200, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 190032
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 989 MB WED NIGHT AND THEN TO 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YAKUTAT AT 996 MB THU AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF FRI.

$$

PKZ119-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
DIMINISHING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
DIMINISHING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-191500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-191500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-191500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-191500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-191500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-191500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-191500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191229
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 990 MB LOW 170 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 82
NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 995 MB THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-200300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-200300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-200300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-200300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-200300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-200300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE BERING WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. AN ELONGATED EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED FRONT FROM SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TOMORROW MORNING AS A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM A 160+KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MULTIPLE TRIPLE POINT LOWS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
GULF. WHILE THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THESE TRIPLE POINT LOWS
REMAIN A FORECAST CHALLENGE...A TRANSITION FROM A MORE STABLE
OFFSHORE FLOW TO A LESS STABLE ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIDE SPREAD SNOW AND
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE BEEN A CHALLENGE TODAY. THE 12Z RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL BUT QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THEY STRUGGLE TO MANAGE THE
ENERGY FROM THE VARIOUS TRIPLE POINT LOWS THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ALEUTIANS...AND THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW AND MOVEMENT WHEN A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW
NIGHT. WHEN LOOKING AT FIVE DIFFERENT 12Z MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE ARE FIVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA. WHILE THE 18Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY ARE SEEN AS LESS
RELIABLE...THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE BOTH JUMPED SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE 12Z GEM MODEL WAS SHOWING. HOPEFULLY THIS IS
INDICATING THAT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO LOCK ONTO THE MAIN
FEATURES AND WILL CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION SOON. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS THAT THE FORECASTS ARE BEING ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
END.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS
WEAKENING AND PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING DOWN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND DIMINISH THE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD AND
DEVELOP A LOW THAT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY TOMORROW NIGHT...AND THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY AS A TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW BEFORE
TURNING TO RAIN. THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL STAY SNOW AS THE FRONT
ELONGATES AND HAS A HARD TIME DISLODGING THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND YUKON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST BRINGING FULL GALES TO THE AREAS AS WE AS
SNOWFALL. THIS HAS PROMPTED A BLIZZARD WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. WHILE LAST NIGHT IT LOOKED LIKE THE BLIZZARD
POSSIBILITY WAS MOSTLY OVER PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHANCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
FROM MOOSE PASS TOWARD SEWARD AS WELL. THIS IS NOT A SURE THING BUT
CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA COULD SEE SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HOMER BLUFF AND NEAR SELDOVIA. HOWEVER
THE SELDOVIA AREA MAY WARM UP ENOUGH TO TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN. FARTHER NORTH ON THE KENAI PENINSULA AND FARTHER NORTH THROUGH
THE ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREA THERE WILL BE SOME SNOWFALL BUT IT WILL
BE TRUNCATED BY THE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
THE WRENCH IN THE WORKS HERE IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD OVERRIDE SOME OF THE DOWN SLOPE EFFECT.

SOUTHWEST....AS THE FRONT OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS MAKING
PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS IT ERODES THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
BERING SEA. A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR ADAK OVERNIGHT
AND THEN A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR DUTCH HARBOR
TOMORROW...MOVING INTO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING PRECIPITATION
TO RAIN OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND...PRIBILOF ISLANDS...AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. IN BRISTOL BAY THINGS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT AS THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THAT AREA WHICH MAY KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SNOW FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT. THEREFORE THERE HAS BEEN A BLIZZARD
WATCH ISSUED FOR ZONE 161 AS THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS IN THE AREA
ALONG THIS FRONT AS WELL.
FARTHER WEST IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THE WINDS WILL BE LESS AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MID WEEK. A BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE BERING WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WET SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH MOST THE WEEKEND. A TRANSITION TO
A COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND WESTERN GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN SHIFTS AGAIN TO SHOW A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING. THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 121 125 135 161.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 132-138 150-165 171 178-180 185.
         STORM 170 172-177.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126-131 139 160 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13