Storm Warning 189, NWS Anchorage, AK

680 
FZAK62 PAFC 230033
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 961 MB LOW NEAR 47N 169E MOVES TO 47N 172E LATE TONIGHT AT 965 MB
THEN WEAKENS TO 975 MB NEAR 50N 176W LATE TUE NIGHT. A 974 MB LOW
FORMS NEAR 54N 176E LATE MON NIGHT AND MOVES TO 56N 171E TUE
AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
BERING SEA THROUGH TUE. 
$$

PKZ411-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT S OF 56N IN
THE AFTERNOON SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT S OF 56N. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT EXCEPT BECOMING S 20 KT S OF 57N AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT S OF 55N IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT EXCEPT BECOMING S 20 KT S OF 56N AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

881 
FZAK62 PAFC 231253
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A LARGE 960 MB LOW NEAR 48N 170E MOVES TO 48N 178E LATE TONIGHT AT
971 MB...THEN WEAKENS TO 983 MB NEAR ATKA LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT S OF 56N IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S TO E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

824 
FZAK62 PAFC 240008
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241500-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 48N 172E WILL MOVE TO 55N 177W AT 991 MB WED
AFTERNOON. A 983 MB LOW NEAR 51N 166W WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 56N 171W
TUE MORNING. A DEVELOPING 974 MB LOW NEAR 54N 174W MON NIGHT WILL
MOVE TO 53N 165E AT 980 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE PRINCIPAL WAVE FEATURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM AN UPPER RIDGE RESIDES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER.
BETWEEN THE TWO...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A MULTITUDE OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER. LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY LARGE 960 MB LOW CURRENTLY 725 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE ALEUTIANS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR SPLITS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A POTENT DISTURBANCE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RESULTING COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCES ALREADY
IN PLACE WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND GENERATE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

OUT WEST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL
MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WEATHER FRONT (WITH ISOLATED STORM FORCE WINDS
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN BERING) WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE EUROPEAN (EC) MODEL CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE THE KEY WEATHER
FEATURES VERY WELL...WITH THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM CONTINUING
TO STRUGGLE A BIT...THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
OVER THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO RELY MAINLY ON THE EC AS A
RESULT BUT DOES NOT DISCOUNT THE GFS.

THE PRINCIPAL PROBLEM RESIDES WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF LOWER TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS OVER THE GULF. FORECASTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
WILL RELY HEAVILY ON WHICH SOLUTION IS MORE CORRECT...ESPECIALLY FOR
POPULATED CENTERS OF ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU BOROUGH. IF THE EC AND
UKMET MODELS VERIFY WITH A FARTHER WEST SOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH LOW-END ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR ANCHORAGE AND VICINITY...BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IF THE NAM AND GFS VERIFY WITH A MORE EASTWARD
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA WERE EXTENDED UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING SINCE IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A WARM ABOVE-FREEZING
LAYER STILL EXISTS ABOVE THE COLD SURFACE INVERSION.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW EXCEPT FOR NEAR SEA
LEVEL NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE GULF COAST. EXPECTING LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS INTO THIS EVENING...THEN WITH COLD ADVECTION
INCREASING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD START TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SNOW
RATES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
EXTENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO MAINTAIN
CURRENT FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS...WHICH APPROACHES BUT
DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ANCHORAGE AND
VICINITY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT FORSEE ISSUING ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING SOONER TOWARD THE WEST.

CLEARING COMMENCES MONDAY WITH RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA...WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND CHRISTMAS
DAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SNOW
AND CONFINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS COLD ADVECTION
INCREASES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES IN SPEED. PARTIAL
CLEARING COMMENCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH INTO AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRINGING A RETURN TO SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES TO COASTAL AREAS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AKPEN THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE NEXT LARGE-SCALE WEATHER MAKER IS A STRONG
GALE-FORCE WEATHER FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY...THEN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS AND
POINTS EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
AND PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO START AS WET SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN ALL AREAS FAIRLY QUICKLY. AS OF RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS NO HAZARD PRODUCTS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST
ZONES OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EC AND WPC ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING ON
TUE. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE BERING...ALEUTIANS...AND
SOUTHWEST AK ON TUE. AS THE BERING LOW WEAKENS INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS WED WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS. ON THU THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM AT THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST AK...AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE BERING FRONT WILL SPREAD SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO WED...WITH SOME SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND REACHING THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE AK
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...119 120 131 132 137 138 150 155 160 165 170-178 180
                 185
         STORMS...130
         HVY FRZG SPRY...139 150 160 180 181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC DEC 13