Storm Warning 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

625 
FZAK51 PAFC 191913 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1010 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

UPDATED 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB IN
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY EARLY SUN MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-200300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-200300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-200300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1010 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING E 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-200300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-200300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

595 
FZAK51 PAFC 200020
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT. A 976 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY SUN
AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO 987 MB 424 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY MON
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO  20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-201500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-201500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-201500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
 
$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-201500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-201500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 32 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT SUBSIDING
TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE ALASKAN
AOR THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA AT THIS TIME...BUT IS BEING PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD BY A SHARP
MEDIUM-AMPLITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A 100 KT
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS DRIVING THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. FURTHER WEST...COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE BERING
SEA...TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE NEAR 40N LATITUDE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 983 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND BRINGING RAIN AND WIND TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ALEUTIANS. FURTHER NORTH...MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS IS LINGERING ACROSS
MANY OF THE INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS RELATIVELY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS HAVING A HARD TIME CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN ABOVE-AVERAGE SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. THE NAM HAS BEEN
AN OUTLIER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT HAS COME INTO MUCH MORE
REASONABLE AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE ON THE LOW
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN
FROM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MERGING TOGETHER INTO ONE LARGE AND COMPLEX
LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. DESPITE THE WELL-KNOWN COMPLEXITIES
OF SUCH AN INTERACTION...THERE IS EVEN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LONGEVITY AND POSITION OF THE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS.
FURTHER TO THE EAST...MODELS AGREE THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF SATURDAY MORNING AND
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING TO NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
ON SUNDAY AND TOWARD THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF...AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO STAY SNOW DOWN TO
SEA LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING STORM. OVERALL FLOW THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS STORM WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND MUCH COOLER
THAN THE STORM LAST WEEKEND...AND THUS EXPECT A TYPICAL
UPSLOPE/DOWNLSOPE PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE COLDER TREND IN THE MODELS MAKES IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE
PORTAGE AREA MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOP LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. THE COOK INLET AREA MAY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE
WINDS INCREASE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE NOTABLE ISSUE FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL PROBABLY BE RECENT
LOW-DENSITY SNOWFALL BEING PICKED UP AND BLOWN ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
AND THE HILLSIDE. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO MAKE IT TOO FAR DOWN THE
HILLSIDE...BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...A STEADY INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...AND SHOULD BE SNOW AT
MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...AS WELL AS THE DELTA COAST WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE ISSUES WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AS THE STORM UNFOLDS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN PORTIONS OF THE DELTA COAST SEEING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...THUS A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS
MOVED INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED FAIRLY QUICKLY AND RAIN IS NOW FALLING AT
MOST LOCATIONS WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE REMAINING
MUCH COLDER OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS STEADY SNOW BEGINS.
AS THE TWO LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE WEAKEN AND COMBINE BY SUNDAY MORNING
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...THE REGION WILL FALL INTO A MORE SHOWERY
PATTERN THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-AVERAGE...WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 195
         BLIZZARD WATCH 125
MARINE...STORM 185
         GALE 120 130 132 136 137 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 160 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 13