Storm Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

493 
FZAK52 PAFC 190026
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 MB LOW 290 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB 120
NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR SAT AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW 610 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 964 MB 390 NM SOUTH OF ADAK SAT AFTERNOON.
THESE TWO LOWS WILL COMBINE INTO A LARGE AND COMPLEX 973 MB LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 
3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-191500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E...NE WIND 40 KT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
IS COMBINING WITH CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND A WEAK NORTH GULF LOW
AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. ALL THREE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE END OF THE SNOW EVENT. A FAIRLY NARROW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CREATING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AND ALLOWING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS. OUT WEST...A WEAKENING
LOW WEST OF SHEMYA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND IS
WEAKENING AS IT IS SHEERED APART.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO MAKE SLOW AND
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIAN REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE UP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM
THE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND COAST STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FURTHER WEST...THE MODELS ALL DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC THAT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS
SAME TIME...A SEPARATE LOW WILL MOVE ZONALLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. THESE TWO LOWS COMBINE INTO ONE LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW CENTER
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME EXPECTED
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF THE MERGER OF THESE TWO LOWS...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE FAIRLY MINOR OVERALL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THIS EVOLUTION DUE TO
SUPERIOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND...ONGOING SNOW EVENT WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL
WILL PROBABLY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER COOK INLET REGION. CLOUDS WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVING IN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE STORM LAST WEEKEND (WHICH WAS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY)...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A MORE TYPICAL UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES NOW LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION MAY EVEN STAY
ALL-SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTS. THE WHOLE
AREAS SHOULD SEE THE COLD OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERS STAY WILL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA IS STILL FOSTERING A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PARENT LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION WILL GRADUALLY TURN INTO STEADIER WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAIRLY WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
NORTHWARD. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
LARGE COMPLEX LOW SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS...BUT THE OVERALL IS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL OVERALL PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ALTERNATING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN AND AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS.
AFTER A WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND (BUT STILL LESS THAN LAST WEEKEND)
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS AT MOST LOCATIONS NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 140 150 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 13