Storm Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

005 
FZAK51 PAFC 180038 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

CORRECTED ZONES 137 AND  138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-181500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-181500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-181500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 
S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE E WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-181500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-181500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING. 
GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EARLY 
EVENING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

882 
FZAK51 PAFC 181239
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SAT. 

$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-190300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-190300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-190300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-190300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-190300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF 
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE 
MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
IS COMBINING WITH CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND A WEAK NORTH GULF LOW
AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. ALL THREE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE END OF THE SNOW EVENT. A FAIRLY NARROW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CREATING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AND ALLOWING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS. OUT WEST...A WEAKENING
LOW WEST OF SHEMYA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND IS
WEAKENING AS IT IS SHEERED APART.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO MAKE SLOW AND
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIAN REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE UP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM
THE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND COAST STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FURTHER WEST...THE MODELS ALL DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC THAT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS
SAME TIME...A SEPARATE LOW WILL MOVE ZONALLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. THESE TWO LOWS COMBINE INTO ONE LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW CENTER
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME EXPECTED
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF THE MERGER OF THESE TWO LOWS...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE FAIRLY MINOR OVERALL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THIS EVOLUTION DUE TO
SUPERIOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND...ONGOING SNOW EVENT WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL
WILL PROBABLY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER COOK INLET REGION. CLOUDS WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVING IN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE STORM LAST WEEKEND (WHICH WAS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY)...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A MORE TYPICAL UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES NOW LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION MAY EVEN STAY
ALL-SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTS. THE WHOLE
AREAS SHOULD SEE THE COLD OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERS STAY WILL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA IS STILL FOSTERING A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PARENT LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION WILL GRADUALLY TURN INTO STEADIER WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAIRLY WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
NORTHWARD. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
LARGE COMPLEX LOW SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS...BUT THE OVERALL IS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL OVERALL PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ALTERNATING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN AND AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS.
AFTER A WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND (BUT STILL LESS THAN LAST WEEKEND)
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS AT MOST LOCATIONS NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 140 150 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 13