Storm Warning 127, NWS Anchorage, AK

986 
FZAK51 PAFC 081150
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A STRONG FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GULF THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE EASTERN GULF BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUE EVENING
AND PERSIST INTO WED.

$$

PKZ119-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE MORNING. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-090300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-090300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-090300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-090300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-090300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-090300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
125 PM AKDT MON OCT 7 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH CAUSING
AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
FOCUS THIS MORNING IS IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE A 160KT+
SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE PERCENT OF NORMAL
TPW (TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER) SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS A LONG
FETCH OF GREATER THAN 200% OF NORMAL TPW. THE GEFS (GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM) ANOMALIES ALSO REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF ABOUT 4 TO 5 1/2 FOR
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AS ALL OF THIS MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR AND EXPECT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
AND JET STREAK TRACKING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN IS
SPREADING WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE SYSTEM INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING STORM...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO FUNDAMENTALLY AFFECT THE FORECAST. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED
ON BOTTOMING THE LOW OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 960S EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
THERE IS ALSO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS THIS
MAJOR EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRACKS TO THE WEST COAST
OF ALASKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM
TRACK AND DEPTH HAVE FINE TUNED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ANCHORAGE.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE TYPE OF EVENTS...EXPECT VARYING WINDS AND
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/DURATION OF WINDS ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND
VICINITY. SOME OF THE KEY POINTS FOR THIS HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE
ANCHORAGE AREA INCLUDE...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH A SHORT DURATION
OF THE HIGHEST WINDS (ESPECIALLY FOR MOST OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL)...A
LACK OF A TRAPPING INVERSION AT OR ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP WHICH WILL
KEEP THE MOST EXTREME WINDS CONFINED TO THE UPPER HILLSIDE...AND A
SATURATED NON-FROZEN GROUND WHICH MEANS TREES WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING OVER IN HIGH WINDS.

SHIFTING THE FOCUS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST...MODELS NOW BOTTOM THE
LOW OUT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH MEANS WINDS
COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHEN FACTORING IN PRESSURE RISES...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS NEARING WARNING LEVELS.
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED IN ON A VERY MARGINAL EVENT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM HOOPER BAY TO GOODNEWS
BAY TO HIGHLIGHT HIGH WAVE ACTION AND SURF WITH MINOR COASTAL
EROSION. THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS USED TO SEEING THESE TYPES OF
WINDS...BUT THEY ARE RARER FOR INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 2 MB OR MORE PER HOUR EXPECT STRONG WINDS
TO EXTEND INLAND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WITH SUCH ABUNDANT MOISTURE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT IN TIME MAJOR RIVERS AND STREAM
ARE RUNNING FAIRLY LOW...SO DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
THERE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS DURING PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL...SO THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MINOR PONDING OR FLOODING IN LOW LYING URBAN
AREAS.

AS THE LOW WEAKENS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE
CROSSING THE BERING SEA WILL DROP DOWN THE BACK OF THE TROUGH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES...AND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THESE
POINT TOWARD VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH GAPS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MORE
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND.

WITH VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THERE WON'T BE MUCH BREAK
BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN. THIS PARTICULAR LOW WILL
BOTTOM OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH MILDER WEATHER AND IMPACTS FROM THIS
STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LOOK FOR PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW AND ACTIVE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY 155 161.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...119.
         GALE WARNING...120 125 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 140 141
                        150 155 160 165 171 172 173 174 175 176 177
                        178 179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 13