Storm Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

784 
FZAK52 PAFC 080023
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 370 NM NW OF SHEMYA
AT 966 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ150-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-081500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-081500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-081500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...BERING SIDE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S
WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-081500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BERING SIDE...SE 60 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 17
FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-081500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT
BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-081500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN JAN 6 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS ARE SIMILAR AND
REASONABLE. THE 500 MB FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF THE
MAIN FEATURES. THE DIFFERENCES AS ALWAYS LAY IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. IN THE EAST THE LOW HEADING TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND IS FULLY OCCLUDED AND STACKED...THE MODELS SIMILARLY
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO BE THE BEST COMPROMISE IN POSITIONING. OUT
WEST...MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS MON. THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES CAME IN WITH THE
POSITIONING OF A FRONTAL WAVE WHICH CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE SIMILAR FORECASTS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
ECMWF 00Z ALSO SHIFTED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW LEAN
TOWARD GFS OUT WEST THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A 960S STACKED LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE GULF MON BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING MON NIGHT/TUE. THE FRONTAL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIES ACROSS THE AK PEN AND IS RAPIDLY
MOVING NORTH ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND. THE WESTERN PORTION MOVES OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKENS TONIGHT. THE GULF PORTION IMPACTS THE NORTH
GULF COAST TONIGHT...THEN MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS MON. THE BARRIER
JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD INTENSIFY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OUT WEST...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL WEAKENING FEATURES INFLUENCE THE AREA. OTHER
THAN THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ARE
PRODUCING VIGOROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH MON WILL BE THE LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE COASTS
WILL RECEIVE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH MOST SEA LEVEL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN-SLOPED...BUT SOME SPILL OVER SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF MON. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE
LOW DRIFTS SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALASKA PENINSULA...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND
WITH INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING
SOME SNOW ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
DRIER CONDITIONS ON MON. PATCHY FOG ALSO TO BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN
MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON ACROSS THE AK PEN.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG FRONT WILL
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH RAIN AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LOW WILL PARK ITSELF OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A POWERFUL 200 KNOT EAST ASIAN JET STREAM
WILL ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS TO FORM ALONG IT. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET AND STORMY PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS
TRANSLATING OVER TOP THE RIDGE AXIS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132  150 155 160 176.
         STORM 150 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 13