Gale Warning 53, NWS Anchorage, AK

197 
FZAK51 PAFC 080014
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 981 MB LOW 80 NM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TO 100 NM WEST OF
HAIDA GWAII AND WEAKENS TO 1006 MB WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT S OF CAPE
CLEARE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING... THEN
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 
45 KT OUT OF BAY AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAY AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN JAN 6 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS ARE SIMILAR AND
REASONABLE. THE 500 MB FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF THE
MAIN FEATURES. THE DIFFERENCES AS ALWAYS LAY IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. IN THE EAST THE LOW HEADING TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND IS FULLY OCCLUDED AND STACKED...THE MODELS SIMILARLY
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO BE THE BEST COMPROMISE IN POSITIONING. OUT
WEST...MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS MON. THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES CAME IN WITH THE
POSITIONING OF A FRONTAL WAVE WHICH CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE SIMILAR FORECASTS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
ECMWF 00Z ALSO SHIFTED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW LEAN
TOWARD GFS OUT WEST THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A 960S STACKED LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE GULF MON BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING MON NIGHT/TUE. THE FRONTAL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIES ACROSS THE AK PEN AND IS RAPIDLY
MOVING NORTH ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND. THE WESTERN PORTION MOVES OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKENS TONIGHT. THE GULF PORTION IMPACTS THE NORTH
GULF COAST TONIGHT...THEN MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS MON. THE BARRIER
JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD INTENSIFY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OUT WEST...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL WEAKENING FEATURES INFLUENCE THE AREA. OTHER
THAN THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ARE
PRODUCING VIGOROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH MON WILL BE THE LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE COASTS
WILL RECEIVE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH MOST SEA LEVEL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN-SLOPED...BUT SOME SPILL OVER SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF MON. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE
LOW DRIFTS SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALASKA PENINSULA...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND
WITH INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING
SOME SNOW ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
DRIER CONDITIONS ON MON. PATCHY FOG ALSO TO BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN
MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON ACROSS THE AK PEN.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG FRONT WILL
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH RAIN AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LOW WILL PARK ITSELF OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A POWERFUL 200 KNOT EAST ASIAN JET STREAM
WILL ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS TO FORM ALONG IT. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET AND STORMY PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS
TRANSLATING OVER TOP THE RIDGE AXIS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132  150 155 160 176.
         STORM 150 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 13