Small Craft Advisory 971, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 060018
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ119-061500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-061500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-061500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-061500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-061500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-061500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-061500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-061500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-061500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-061500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-061500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-061500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-061500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-061500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-061500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-061500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 061220
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH
SUN MORNING. 

$$

PKZ119-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-070300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-070300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-070300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-070300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-070300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-070300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-070300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 4 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER MAP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EDGING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THIS IS OPENING THE
DOOR FOR SOME PRECIPITATION N THE COOK INLET REGION AS WELL AS
BRINGING THE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THIS IS BRINGING A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THIS FLOW AND A FEW HAVE BEEN
CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING THEM TO THE ALASKA
RANGE AND COOK INLET REGIONS.
AT THE SURFACE THE STORM TRACK IS SET FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA. THERE ARE THREE LOW THAT WILL BE
TRAVERSING ALONG THIS LINE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY ARE QUITE GOOD. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE COOK INLET REGION WHERE THE NAM IS SHOWING A GREATER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE
JUDGING BY THE WAY THE RADAR IS FILLING IN WITH ECHOES SINCE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS ALSO THE MODEL GOING STRONGLY TOWARD THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO GIVEN A LOT OF WEIGHT DUE TO
THE SUPERIOR RESOLUTION OF THE NAM AND THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS DRIVING
IT TOWARD SEEING THESE DETAILS THAT ARE SMOOTHED OVER BY THE MODELS
WITH LESS RESOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS A BIT STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED HAS BROUGHT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE COOK
INLET REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA MAY BE WEAKENING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND INCREASES THE LIKELY
HOOD FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING MAY BE A MIXED BAG BUT BY
MIDNIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AS MORE WARMING OCCURS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING
RAIN...BUT THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF WEST OF COOK INLET.

SOUTHWEST...THE SURFACE HAS WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT ALL
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY ZONES. THIS HAS CAUSED ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN TODAY WITH THE ONLY FREEZING RAIN
REMAINING IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHERE THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEY
HAS REMAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME COOLING DOWN
MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THE HEART OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THIS
REGION. THE ENTIRE AREA FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOWS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FOLLOW ALMOST THE
EXACT SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE
STILL CHANGING THEIR STORY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH REGARD TO HOW THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEHAVE DURING THAT TIME. THAT WILL IMPACT HOW FAR
EAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO GET. AT THIS TIME IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE COOK
INLET AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST ALASKA AT GREATER RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 101 121 152.
MARINE...GALE 155 170 172 173 178 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13