Small Craft Advisory 920, NWS Anchorage, AK

108 
FZAK51 PAFC 211231
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK TO 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK THIS
AFTERNOON AT 977 MB AND MOVE TO 70 NM NORTH OF SITKINAK AT 981 MB
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND FRI MORNING. A 983 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO 90
NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 981 MB FRI MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INLAND FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ119-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT E 50 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
NEAR THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-220300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ127-220300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-220300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S WIND 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 16
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-220300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-220300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-220300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
150 PM AKST WED NOV 20 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THIS IS A SHORT-WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WHICH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND CAUSING
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT TO BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ALLOW TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO BEGIN
TO FLOW NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL FOCUS AND IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A WARM FRONT WHICH IS VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND
AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR WITH THE BIG
PICTURE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND WINDS AS THIS
STORM MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL DETERMINE ARRIVAL OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND TOMORROW. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
AND THE LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT TREND. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW MOVING UP
FROM THE PACIFIC THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FRIDAY. SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY -
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS AND
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW AND THE AFFECT THAT HAS ON QPF IN THESE AREAS.
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA/COOK INLET AND
JUST WEST OF ANCHORAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BASED ON THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL ISSUE SOME SORT OF WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MAJORITY OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. AS IT THEN PROGRESSES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVER MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS AND FROM SNOW TO PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST.

AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF ANCHORAGE AND
PALMER/WASILLA. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE INITIAL
OVERRUNNING WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN...BASED ON LOW TRACK...IS HOW
STRONG DO THE WINDS GET ACROSS WEST TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. IN GOING WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION OF TRACKING THE LOW TO THE BARREN ISLANDS
AND PASSING JUST WEST OF ANCHORAGE AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD EXPECT
THESE WINDS WON'T BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING. THEREFORE...AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP.
IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW ENDS UP BEING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND
STRONGER TURNAGAIN WINDS DEVELOP THEN THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A FAIRLY
DECENT PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION...LIMITING THE IMPACT OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION AND ICE ACCUMULATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS
COINCIDENT WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND COULD CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES FROM
ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT-SU DURING THE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING COMMUTE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE GENERAL THEME IS THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW WILL DOMINATE MEANING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL BE RIGHT ON
THE BORDER BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 131 138.
         GALE WARNING...119 120 125 132 139 150 155 160 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...139 140 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 13