Gale Warning 756, NWS Anchorage, AK

611 
FZAK62 PAFC 220036
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 MB LOW NEAR 56N 156W WILL TRACK INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA ON FRI. A 986 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA 
FRI MORNING AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI
NIGHT. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 45N 169E WILL TRACK TO 48N 180 FRI 
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 48N 169W SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.   

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N TO E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N TO E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 21 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

745 
FZAK62 PAFC 221248
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 60N 165W THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
INLAND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA LATE THIS EVENING. A 984 MB LOW NEAR
47N 176W FRI NIGHT WILL TRACK TO 52N 165W AT 990 MB SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
..HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

764 
FZAK62 PAFC 230026
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 989 MB LOW AT 61N 166W WILL MOVE TO 60N 162W LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INLAND BY SAT AFTERNOON. A 989 MB LOW AT 49N 166W SAT AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE TO 56N 163W SUN AFTERNOON AT 994 MB.

$$

PKZ411-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N TO E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N TO E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N TO W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

346 
FZAK62 PAFC 231234
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 23 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH EARLY
MON. A 995 MB LOW AT 54N 164W SUN MORNING WILL MOVE TO 57N 168W AT
997 MB MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 23 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 23 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 23 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 23 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
150 PM AKST WED NOV 20 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THIS IS A SHORT-WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WHICH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND CAUSING
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT TO BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ALLOW TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO BEGIN
TO FLOW NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL FOCUS AND IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A WARM FRONT WHICH IS VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND
AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR WITH THE BIG
PICTURE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND WINDS AS THIS
STORM MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL DETERMINE ARRIVAL OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND TOMORROW. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
AND THE LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT TREND. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW MOVING UP
FROM THE PACIFIC THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FRIDAY. SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY -
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS AND
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW AND THE AFFECT THAT HAS ON QPF IN THESE AREAS.
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA/COOK INLET AND
JUST WEST OF ANCHORAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BASED ON THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL ISSUE SOME SORT OF WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MAJORITY OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. AS IT THEN PROGRESSES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVER MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS AND FROM SNOW TO PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST.

AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF ANCHORAGE AND
PALMER/WASILLA. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE INITIAL
OVERRUNNING WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN...BASED ON LOW TRACK...IS HOW
STRONG DO THE WINDS GET ACROSS WEST TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. IN GOING WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION OF TRACKING THE LOW TO THE BARREN ISLANDS
AND PASSING JUST WEST OF ANCHORAGE AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD EXPECT
THESE WINDS WON'T BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING. THEREFORE...AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP.
IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW ENDS UP BEING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND
STRONGER TURNAGAIN WINDS DEVELOP THEN THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A FAIRLY
DECENT PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION...LIMITING THE IMPACT OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION AND ICE ACCUMULATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS
COINCIDENT WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND COULD CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES FROM
ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT-SU DURING THE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING COMMUTE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE GENERAL THEME IS THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW WILL DOMINATE MEANING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL BE RIGHT ON
THE BORDER BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 131 138.
         GALE WARNING...119 120 125 132 139 150 155 160 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...139 140 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 13