Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

914 
FZAK52 PAFC 040019
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW 125 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM WILL DISSIPATE FRI MORNING
60 NM EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. A 970 MB LOW 315 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 963 MB 160 NM WEST OF ADAK FRI EVENING AND
THEN WEAKEN TO 967 MB 145 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS 35 KT NEAR THE WESTERN CAPES AND OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SW 20 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 14 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 14 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BERING SIDE...26 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...32 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
SHEMYA W...NE WIND 30 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO
17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. FROM SHEMYA WEST...N WIND 30 KT 
SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
EAST. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.FRI...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKST WED JAN 2 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING. A 969 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS THE
LATEST IN A STRING OF LOWS TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FLOW IS SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ARE IMPROVING AS FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. FURTHER WEST...A VERY ELONGATED
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...BRINGING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODESL REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW
NEAR THE AKPEN CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND RETREATING WESTWARD THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS STORMS...WITH GALE-FORE
WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT
REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE ODD-SOLUTION OUT WITH A
MUCH FURTHER NORTH TRACK...AND WILL BE IGNORED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. MEANWHILE...A COMPLEX LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA...THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHICH ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MORE THAN 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...IMPRESSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF IS BEING
ENHANCED BY SEVERAL WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT NEAR KODIAK PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL...DO NOT EXPECT WARNING-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE FAVORED
TERRAIN GAPS LIKE TURNAGAIN ARM. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLASSIC
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE ON DISPLAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS AND THOMPSON PASS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS STORMS...MINIMAL PRECIP EXPECTED UNTIL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK OUT TO THE BERING SEA
THURSDAY MORNING. THERMALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A SIMILAR
CONDITION AS THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS. AS SUCH...CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
BERING...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SNOW THAN HAS BEEN SEEN
IN RECENT STORMS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...LARGE BUT FAIRLY WEAK COMPLEX LOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING...BRINGING STRONGER WINDS THAN RECENT STORMS AS IT TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WILL ALLOW SOME STRONGER
AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA DOMAIN BY THIS
WEEKEND. GENERALLY...THE BERING SEA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THESE
STRONGER LOWS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MAINLAND ALASKA TO REMAIN
UNDER GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN RECENT DAYS BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 150 155 160 175 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 13