Gale Warning 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

087 
FZAK51 PAFC 031222
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND INLAND FRI MORNING. A 1000 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP 310 NM S OF YAKUTAT FRI EVENING AND MOVE TO 250 NM S OF
YAKUTAT AT 1002 MB LATE FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

078 
FZAK51 PAFC 040006
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND INLAND BY FRI MORNING. A 987 MB
LOW 650 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 998 MB 300 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT SAT MORNING AND DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALONG
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 
8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 30 KT S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT N OF CAPE KULIAK. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 3 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE EVENING. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKST WED JAN 2 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING. A 969 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS THE
LATEST IN A STRING OF LOWS TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FLOW IS SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ARE IMPROVING AS FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. FURTHER WEST...A VERY ELONGATED
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...BRINGING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODESL REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW
NEAR THE AKPEN CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND RETREATING WESTWARD THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS STORMS...WITH GALE-FORE
WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT
REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE ODD-SOLUTION OUT WITH A
MUCH FURTHER NORTH TRACK...AND WILL BE IGNORED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. MEANWHILE...A COMPLEX LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA...THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHICH ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MORE THAN 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...IMPRESSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF IS BEING
ENHANCED BY SEVERAL WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT NEAR KODIAK PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL...DO NOT EXPECT WARNING-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE FAVORED
TERRAIN GAPS LIKE TURNAGAIN ARM. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLASSIC
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE ON DISPLAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS AND THOMPSON PASS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS STORMS...MINIMAL PRECIP EXPECTED UNTIL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK OUT TO THE BERING SEA
THURSDAY MORNING. THERMALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A SIMILAR
CONDITION AS THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS. AS SUCH...CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
BERING...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SNOW THAN HAS BEEN SEEN
IN RECENT STORMS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...LARGE BUT FAIRLY WEAK COMPLEX LOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING...BRINGING STRONGER WINDS THAN RECENT STORMS AS IT TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WILL ALLOW SOME STRONGER
AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA DOMAIN BY THIS
WEEKEND. GENERALLY...THE BERING SEA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THESE
STRONGER LOWS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MAINLAND ALASKA TO REMAIN
UNDER GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN RECENT DAYS BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 150 155 160 175 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 13