Small Craft Advisory 887, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN NOV 10 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS.
DIFFERENCES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN SOUTHCENTRAL IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD
ADVECTION. THE WRF SEEMS TO HAVE TO BEST HANDLE BY DROPPING THE
1000-850MB 1300 THICKNESS LINE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
WESTERN KENAI THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND MON MORNING. THE WRF AND NAM ARE THE BEST CHOICE FOR MON AND
TUE IN SOUTHCENTRAL AS OUTFLOW WINDS SET UP. OUT WEST...THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE HAVE SIMILAR AND REASONABLE SOLUTIONS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST AK PEN TO WESTERN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH
IS STILL OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MON
AND TO WESTERN CANADA AND THE EAST GULF TUE NIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE
AND SHIFTS EAST AS WAVES TRAVEL AROUND ITS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PEIPHERY THROUGH TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE COASTS
AND IN THE COOK INLET REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER OVER THE
SUSITNA AND NORTHERN MATANUSKA VALLEY. SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. TEMPS WILL
COOL THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AND NORTH IN THE COOK INLET REGION
AS THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST. SO AREAS IN THE COOK INLET
REGION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS  EVENING AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS MON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE VALLEY SECTIONS OF
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AS THE DOWNSLOPE WEAKENS AND THE 850MB
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MON
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL THEN SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AS TEMP AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MON
EVENING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE WILL BE STRONG WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND NORTH GULF COAST. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH
ESTIMATED SNOWFALL FOR THOMPSON PASS WILL LIKELY CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITION THROUGH THE PASS BEGINNING LATE MON MORNING THROUGH TUE.

SOUTHWEST...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
PROGRESSES EAST. RIDGING WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND...SO THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY MON. WARM ADVECTION
SPREADING IN WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT ON MON NIGHT/TUE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN TO THE DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING
AND BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AIR. THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE
OBSERVED. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PUSH ACROSS THE
BERING SEA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA. OVER THE
MAINLAND...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT BREAKS DOWN WILL ALLOW COLD
AIR TO SURGE SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 131.
MARINE...GALE...121 127 128 130 131 132 150 165 170 172 173 174 175
                178 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1045 PM AKST SUN NOV 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     SNOW             1 SE RABBIT CREEK       61.07N 149.80W
11/10/2013  M4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            4 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY AT GOLDENVIEW AND PROMINENCE PT.
            DR. STILL SNOWING. NE WIND 6-8 KTS. TEMP 29.5F

&&

TPEPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1054 PM AKST SUN NOV 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
11/10/2013  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            5 INCHES STORM TOTAL, 1 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR. SAME SNOW
            RATE AS LAST REPORT.

&&

TPEPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1104 PM AKST SUN NOV 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     SNOW             2 E RABBIT CREEK        61.08N 149.76W
11/10/2013  M8.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT THE CORNER OF BIRCH RD AND
            BRISTOL DR.

&&

TPEPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1129 PM AKST SUN NOV 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     SNOW             3 E ANCHORAGE           61.22N 149.78W
11/10/2013  M5.1 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            AS OF 830PM 5.1 INCHES MEASURED AT THE ABC/FOX STUDIO
            ROOF. SNOW IS STILL FALLING. TEMP 31F. VISIBILITY LOW AT
            TIMES.

&&

TPEPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 AM AKST MON NOV 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     SNOW             20 E CHICKALOON         61.79N 147.87W
11/11/2013  M10.0 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL. AS OF 2AM STORM TOTAL IS
            10 INCHES.

&&

TPEPE