Gale Warning 789, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN NOV 10 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS.
DIFFERENCES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN SOUTHCENTRAL IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD
ADVECTION. THE WRF SEEMS TO HAVE TO BEST HANDLE BY DROPPING THE
1000-850MB 1300 THICKNESS LINE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
WESTERN KENAI THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND MON MORNING. THE WRF AND NAM ARE THE BEST CHOICE FOR MON AND
TUE IN SOUTHCENTRAL AS OUTFLOW WINDS SET UP. OUT WEST...THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE HAVE SIMILAR AND REASONABLE SOLUTIONS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST AK PEN TO WESTERN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH
IS STILL OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MON
AND TO WESTERN CANADA AND THE EAST GULF TUE NIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE
AND SHIFTS EAST AS WAVES TRAVEL AROUND ITS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PEIPHERY THROUGH TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE COASTS
AND IN THE COOK INLET REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER OVER THE
SUSITNA AND NORTHERN MATANUSKA VALLEY. SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. TEMPS WILL
COOL THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AND NORTH IN THE COOK INLET REGION
AS THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST. SO AREAS IN THE COOK INLET
REGION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS  EVENING AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS MON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE VALLEY SECTIONS OF
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AS THE DOWNSLOPE WEAKENS AND THE 850MB
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MON
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL THEN SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AS TEMP AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MON
EVENING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE WILL BE STRONG WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND NORTH GULF COAST. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH
ESTIMATED SNOWFALL FOR THOMPSON PASS WILL LIKELY CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITION THROUGH THE PASS BEGINNING LATE MON MORNING THROUGH TUE.

SOUTHWEST...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
PROGRESSES EAST. RIDGING WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND...SO THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY MON. WARM ADVECTION
SPREADING IN WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT ON MON NIGHT/TUE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN TO THE DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING
AND BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AIR. THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE
OBSERVED. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PUSH ACROSS THE
BERING SEA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA. OVER THE
MAINLAND...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT BREAKS DOWN WILL ALLOW COLD
AIR TO SURGE SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 131.
MARINE...GALE...121 127 128 130 131 132 150 165 170 172 173 174 175
                178 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1202 PM AKST SUN NOV 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 AM     SNOW             3 NE GIRDWOOD           60.97N 149.10W
11/10/2013  E6.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2 INCHES SINCE 10 AM. 6 INCHES TOTAL

1144 AM     FREEZING RAIN    1 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.71W
11/10/2013  E0.00 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. APPROX. 1/4
            INCHES ICE ON GROUND. TRACE SNOW.

1144 AM     FREEZING RAIN    4 NNW BUTTE             61.59N 149.11W
11/10/2013  E0.00 INCH                          AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GLAZED ROADWAYS WITH 1/4 INCHES ICE. SEVERAL VEHICLE
            ACCIDENTS.

1144 AM     FREEZING RAIN    4 NNW BUTTE             61.59N 149.09W
11/10/2013  E0.00 INCH                          AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            FREEZING RAIN. 1/4 INCHES ICE ON GROUND. SNOWLINE APPROX
            1500 FEET AGL.

1144 AM     HEAVY SNOW       5 E MATANUSKA GLACIER S 61.81N 147.69W
11/10/2013  E6.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY MODERATE SNOW AND STILL FALLING.

1144 AM     SNOW             26 NNE CHASE            62.82N 149.90W
11/10/2013  E5.0 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            5.0 INCHES LOOSE SNOW. SNOW DEPTH 7 INCHES

1144 AM     HEAVY SNOW       26 NNE CHASE            62.82N 149.90W
11/10/2013  M9.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2 INCHES NEW SNOW SINCE 9 AM. 9 INCHES TOTAL SO FAR.
            MODERATE TO HEAVE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. VISIBILITIIES
            1/4 MILE OR LESS.

1144 AM     SNOW             3 NE GIRDWOOD           60.97N 149.10W
11/10/2013  E5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4-5 INCHES NEW ACCUMULATION. SNOW FALLING.

&&

KUTZ