Small Craft Advisory 871, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS WAS CHOSE FIR THE WESTERN DOMAIN. THE EASTERN AREA
USES NAM FOR THE FIRST 3 OR 4 PERIODS THEN SWITCHES TO THE GFS OUT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE FROM THE GULF TO THE ARCTIC. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING HAS TURNED MORE EAST IN ITS TRACK AS IT PASSES SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD POLAR LOW CENTERED IN THE
NORTHEAST SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVES TO WRANGELL ISLAND AS ANOTHER CENTER MOVES TO
ITS FORMER POSITION SATURDAY. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST JET ACROSS THE
BERING HAS ALREADY MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONT DISSIPATES IN SPLIT FLOW ALONG 162W. RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD
NORTHWARD BEHIND THE GULF LOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AXIS EXTENDING TO ROUGHLY YAKUTAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BERING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND NEARLY STALLS ALONG
160W SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SHARPENING AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER WAVES.
ENOUGH RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO
FORCE THE TROUGH EASTWARD OVER COOK INLET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PRECIPITATION FROM AFOGNAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
INLET EXTENDS WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY EVENING THEN END BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING
MODERATE LOWS TRACK NORTHEAST IN THE WESTERN BERING BUT DOES NOT MAKE IT
EAST OF 180 UNTIL THEY REACH 62N. LIGHT WARM FRONT RAINS REACH THE SOUTHWEST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND REACH THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN COLD
FRONT DRAGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT PRODUCING MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST AND MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO ARRIVE IN SOUTHCENTRAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE WEEK WITH THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT COLDER PATTERN TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING 155 161.
MARINE...STORM 178 185. GALE 103 132 150 155 165 170 THRU 177 AND 179 THRU
181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DPERCY NOV 13