Small Craft Advisory 869, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING
THIS MORNING...AS THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA SWINGS EASTWARD AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND
WESTERN YUKON. A 952 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH ITS FRONT
SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WINDS UP TO 55 MPH ARE STILL BEING NOTED ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. PRECIPITATION IS STRUGGLING TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE LOW
IN THE BERING...BRINGING IT MORE INLAND OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST FOR OUR
AREA HOWEVER. OTHERWISE THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRIPLE-POINT LOW THAT FORMS TOMORROW IN THE WESTERN
GULF...NOW KEEPING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
AFFECTED BY THE LOW FORMING THURSDAY MORNING NEAR KODIAK.
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT NORTH OF THE KACHEMAK
BAY AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ITS GROUND. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY
MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COAST...STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR
FARTHER INLAND. WARM AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD
STILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN ACROSS INLAND AREAS
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION BECOMES
SNOW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS ENDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A BIT BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEFORE MOVING
WESTWARD INTO FAR EAST RUSSIA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE AGAIN (NOT AS HIGH AS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND
44 FT WAVES OBSERVED WITH THIS CURRENT LOW). THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS
THE BERING WILL BE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...WITH A TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. SOME BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES GAIN
A BETTER HOLD OVER THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...155 161.
MARINE...STORM 178 185 411 412 413.
         GALE 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179
              180 181 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SCHRECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
155 PM AKST WED NOV 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ST. PAUL                57.21N 170.22W
11/06/2013                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SAINT PAUL HARBOR MASTER REPORTED ONE SHED IN TOWN WAS
            BLOWN DOWN AS WELL AS A FEW DUMSTERS. A WEATHER SERVICE
            EMPLOYEE SATELLITE DISH WAS RIPPED OFF THE SIDE OF HIS
            HOUSE.

&&

PETERSON