Gale Warning 781, NWS Anchorage, AK

984 
FZAK51 PAFC 080000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1002 MB LOW AROUND 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND 
MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PORT ALEXANDER FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FRI
NIGHT AND BE OUT OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

$$

PKZ119-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-081500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-081500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-081500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
35 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-081500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-081500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-081500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING
THIS MORNING...AS THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA SWINGS EASTWARD AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND
WESTERN YUKON. A 952 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH ITS FRONT
SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WINDS UP TO 55 MPH ARE STILL BEING NOTED ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. PRECIPITATION IS STRUGGLING TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE LOW
IN THE BERING...BRINGING IT MORE INLAND OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST FOR OUR
AREA HOWEVER. OTHERWISE THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRIPLE-POINT LOW THAT FORMS TOMORROW IN THE WESTERN
GULF...NOW KEEPING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
AFFECTED BY THE LOW FORMING THURSDAY MORNING NEAR KODIAK.
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT NORTH OF THE KACHEMAK
BAY AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ITS GROUND. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY
MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COAST...STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR
FARTHER INLAND. WARM AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD
STILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN ACROSS INLAND AREAS
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION BECOMES
SNOW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS ENDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A BIT BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEFORE MOVING
WESTWARD INTO FAR EAST RUSSIA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE AGAIN (NOT AS HIGH AS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND
44 FT WAVES OBSERVED WITH THIS CURRENT LOW). THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS
THE BERING WILL BE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...WITH A TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. SOME BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES GAIN
A BETTER HOLD OVER THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...155 161.
MARINE...STORM 178 185 411 412 413.
         GALE 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179
              180 181 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SCHRECK