Small Craft Advisory 861, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. ANOTHER LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ARE
GENERALLY FASTER AND STRONGER...WITH AN ACTUAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING. THE GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND SLOWER...AND NEVER "CLOSE
OFF" A LOW BUT JUST GO FOR A FAIRLY SHARP FRONT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE NUNIVAK ISLAND LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BASICALLY STALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO BREAK APART. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BASICALLY
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE FRONT FROM THE
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH INTO THE
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WINDS...AGAIN MOSTLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE GULF NEAR KODIAK ISLAND EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE NUNIVAK LOW MOVES NORTH. THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LATER
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE VERY ORGANIZED OVER THE AREA...BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE AROUND FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY
WEATHER. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY EARLY MONDAY
THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 155 170 171 172 174 176 177 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 13