Gale Warning 736, NWS Anchorage, AK

980 
FZAK62 PAFC 040026
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 3 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 56N 169W WILL MOVE TO 57N 158W AT 992 MB MON
MORNING AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF MON
AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 45N 165E MON AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN TO 953 MB NEAR 52N 174E TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 3 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT...STRONGEST S OF 57N. SEAS 4 TO 8
FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 41 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W OF
176W. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 3 2013

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. ANOTHER LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ARE
GENERALLY FASTER AND STRONGER...WITH AN ACTUAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING. THE GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND SLOWER...AND NEVER "CLOSE
OFF" A LOW BUT JUST GO FOR A FAIRLY SHARP FRONT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE NUNIVAK ISLAND LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BASICALLY STALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO BREAK APART. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BASICALLY
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE FRONT FROM THE
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH INTO THE
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WINDS...AGAIN MOSTLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE GULF NEAR KODIAK ISLAND EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE NUNIVAK LOW MOVES NORTH. THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LATER
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE VERY ORGANIZED OVER THE AREA...BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE AROUND FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY
WEATHER. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY EARLY MONDAY
THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 155 170 171 172 174 176 177 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 13