Small Craft Advisory 486, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENTERING
THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM THE YUKON. THIS LOW WILL PROCEED WESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY WHICH WILL
BRING IT INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE
THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH WILL START TO BRING SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO FARTHER INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BY THE WEEKEND THERE IS STILL REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
PATTERN OVER THE STATE BUT THE DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS IS BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED AND WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA REMAINS UNDER HOT CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND
SECTIONS TODAY WHILE THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY THAT
YESTERDAY.
TOMORROW WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND THAT WILL SEE THE
END OF THE RECORD AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
THAT WILL CHANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SMOKE OVER A LARGE
PART OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA COMING FROM A NUMBER OF FIRES INCLUDING THE
LARGE ONE IN THE LIME HILLS NEAR LIME VILLAGE.

THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH LOW CLOUDS FOG AND SOME
RAIN. A LARGE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN A NEW WAVE OF WIND AND RAIN TO THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS A BIT OF A SHIFT BY
THIS WEEKEND AS THE LARGE LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE TO
A MORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 111.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111 141 145 152 161.

JUN 13