Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

679 
WWAK61 PAFC 200033
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 PM AKDT WED JUN 19 2013

AKZ141-200600-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130620T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
433 PM AKDT WED JUN 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.

* 20 FT WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT.

* TIMING...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COPPER RIVER
  THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO
  RECOVER BY LATE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

KOCHEVAR

455 
WWAK61 PAFC 200612
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1012 PM AKDT WED JUN 19 2013

AKZ141-200715-
/X.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130620T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
1012 PM AKDT WED JUN 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WIND ALONG THE COPPER
RIVER...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED JUN 19 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERING NEAR THE NORTHWEST
COAST AND A CLOSED LOW IS MOVING WEST ALONG THE BASE APPROACHING THE
TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NORTH OF ILIAMNA. TWO
OTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE
OTHER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...ARE KEEPING LOW TO MID LEVELS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ALONG
EASTERN BERING. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. THE LOWS NEAR KENAI AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE EAST NEARING THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST
WAS MAINLY UPDATED WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE TODAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ACROSS AREAS THAT TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE SEA BREEZES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL
BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MELT HAS CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO
RISE FOR THE MATANUSKA AND LITTLE SUSITNA RIVERS. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS
OUT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE MATANUSKA. THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
LITTLE SUSITNA HAS BEEN CANCELLED THIS MORNING AS THE RIVER HAS
PEAKED AND WATER LEVELS ARE NOW DECREASING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR YENTNA RIVER AT LAKE CREEK THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER AND A
RED FLAG WILL BE ISSUED FOR STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TODAY. INSTABILITY AROUND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CORE CENTER...AS A FEW STRIKES HAVE REPORTED
THIS MORNING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES

INTO THE NORTHERN BERING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE AND EASTWARD PATH. STRONG WINDS

WITH THIS STORM INCREASE OVER SHEMYA TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR UPDATES AS IT LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONG ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS
CONTINUE WITH INCONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY
BRING A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILD INTO EAST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 175 A76.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

KH JUN 13