Small Craft Advisory 1011, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN DEC 15 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER ALASKA CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING SEA. THERE IS A LARGE COMPLEX LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS...THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AFTER THAT. DIFFERENCES ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO
CREATE MUCH CONCERN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THIS EVENING AS
THE GULF COAST LOW MOVES EAST. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN THE WEATHER
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS LOW A FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME WARMING ALOFT WITH
THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS COLD AIR
REMAINS NEAR THE SURFACE. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND REACH KODIAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE BERING
HIGH WILL FLATTEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SYSTEM FROM THE COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS...THEN NORTH AND EAST TO THE
PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 129 130 131 132 174 175 176 177 178.
      HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 136 137
                  138 139 141 150 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 13