Small Craft Advisory 1008, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN DEC 15 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER ALASKA CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING SEA. THERE IS A LARGE COMPLEX LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS...THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AFTER THAT. DIFFERENCES ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO
CREATE MUCH CONCERN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THIS EVENING AS
THE GULF COAST LOW MOVES EAST. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN THE WEATHER
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS LOW A FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME WARMING ALOFT WITH
THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS COLD AIR
REMAINS NEAR THE SURFACE. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND REACH KODIAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE BERING
HIGH WILL FLATTEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SYSTEM FROM THE COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS...THEN NORTH AND EAST TO THE
PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 129 130 131 132 174 175 176 177 178.
      HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 136 137
                  138 139 141 150 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1156 AM AKST SUN DEC 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     SNOW             5 E SOLDOTNA            60.49N 150.91W
12/15/2013  M9.9 INCH                           AK   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL

&&

DSTRICKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1228 PM AKST SUN DEC 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     SNOW             1 NNE POTTER MARSH      61.07N 149.77W
12/15/2013  M13.5 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

&&

DSTRICKL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
144 PM AKST SUN DEC 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     SNOW             5 ESE ANCHORAGE         61.18N 149.74W
12/15/2013  M13.5 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

&&

DSTRICKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
224 PM AKST SUN DEC 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     SNOW             W SELDOVIA              59.44N 151.71W
12/15/2013  E36.0 INCH                          AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            36 INCHES IN THE LAST 3 DAYS WITH 18 INCHES IN THE LAST
            12-18 HOURS.

&&

DSTRICKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 PM AKST SUN DEC 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     SNOW             1 ENE POTTER MARSH      61.06N 149.76W
12/15/2013  M18.0 INCH                          AK   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL

&&

DSTRICKL