Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2013

Small Craft Advisory 1004, NWS Anchorage, AK

December 14, 2013

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Dec 14, 2013, 4:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 14, 2013, 4:00 PM AKST (01:00 UTC)
Expired: Dec 15, 2013, 4:00 AM AKST
In force: 12 hr
Issued by: NWS Anchorage, AK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 14, 2:00 PM AKST, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 14, 2:00 PM AKST, 2 hours before

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS.
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE OVER-ALL PATTERN BUT
DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS...EVEN EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS NOT HANDLING THE MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA VERY WELL...AND THUS ITS PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS NEED TO BE LOOKED AT WITH THAT IN MIND. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR BUT HAVE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF TYPICALLY A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE LOW AND KEEPING IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF JUST
A LITTLE LONGER. THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT THERE IS NEAR
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN OFFSET BY THE DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE BARREN ISLAND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND INTO SUNDAY...THIS SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR DECENT SNOW IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THEN DEVELOP AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE BERING RIDGE NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING IN
COLDER AND DRIER AIR.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING BARREN ISLANDS LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT
FLATTEN AS IT DOES SO. THUS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE STORM TRACK
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130.
      GALE WARNING 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 180 181.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150
                   160 165 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 13

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 14, 11:09 AM AKST, 4 hours 51 minutes before

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Local storm report, Dec 14, 1:27 PM AKST, 2 hours 33 minutes before

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Local storm report, Dec 14, 3:11 PM AKST, 49 minutes before

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Local storm report, Dec 14, 3:42 PM AKST, 18 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 14, 4:00 PM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	48 hr
Dec 14, 4:00 PM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	12 hr
Dec 14, 4:00 PM AKST	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFC	36 hr
Dec 15, 12:20 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	4 hr
Dec 15, 1:15 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	3 hr
Dec 15, 4:00 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	5 days
Dec 15, 4:00 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	48 hr
Dec 15, 4:00 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	24 hr
Dec 15, 4:00 AM AKST	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFC	5 days
Dec 15, 2:33 PM AKST	Winter Weather Advisory	AFC	10 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2013 Every small craft advisory in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.