Gale Warning 911, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS.
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE OVER-ALL PATTERN BUT
DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS...EVEN EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS NOT HANDLING THE MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA VERY WELL...AND THUS ITS PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS NEED TO BE LOOKED AT WITH THAT IN MIND. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR BUT HAVE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF TYPICALLY A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE LOW AND KEEPING IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF JUST
A LITTLE LONGER. THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT THERE IS NEAR
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN OFFSET BY THE DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE BARREN ISLAND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND INTO SUNDAY...THIS SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR DECENT SNOW IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THEN DEVELOP AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE BERING RIDGE NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING IN
COLDER AND DRIER AIR.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING BARREN ISLANDS LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT
FLATTEN AS IT DOES SO. THUS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE STORM TRACK
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130.
      GALE WARNING 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 180 181.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150
                   160 165 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
726 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
12/14/2013  M10.5 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE LAST NIGHT, 10.5 INCHES EVENT
            TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

ADIXON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
842 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     SNOW             5 E ANCHORAGE           61.22N 149.72W
12/14/2013  M11.2 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            11.2 INCHES STORM TOTAL NEAR LAKE OTIS AND 80TH WITH 6.7
            INCHES SINCE 7 AM.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
913 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     SNOW             9 SE ANCHORAGE          61.12N 149.68W
12/14/2013  M13.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 13.0 INCHES NEAR THE OMALLEY
            TRAILHEAD ON THE HILLSIDE. 5.0 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE
            500 PM SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

ADIXON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
954 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     SNOW             1 ESE EAGLE RIVER       61.32N 149.54W
12/14/2013  M8.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVER REPORTS 8 INCHES NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS,
            ENDING AT 9PM SAT.

&&

PETERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1139 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     SNOW             8 NW HOMER              59.72N 151.68W
12/14/2013  M7.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            OBSERVER REPORTS 2 MORE INCHES SNOW SINCE 6PM FOR A 24
            HOUR STORM TOTAL OF 7 INCHES. VERY LIGHT SNOW FALLING AT
            1130 PM SAT. AND BREEZY.

&&

PETERSON