Hurricane Force Wind Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

855 
FZAK62 PAFC 160622 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
923 PM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

UPDATED ZONES 411 414

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 942 MB LOW NEAR 45N 168E WILL MOVE TO 50N 171E AT 955 MB WED
EVENING THEN DRIFT TO 51N 167E AT 972 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
923 PM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF 57N...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 55 TO 65 KT. SEAS 31 FT BUILDING TO 38 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. N OF 57N...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 55 TO 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 39 FT. N OF 57N...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 TO 35 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF 175W...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. E OF
175W...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W OF 175W...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. E OF
175W...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W OF 175W...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 TO 28 FT. E OF
175W...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
923 PM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

885 
FZAK62 PAFC 161208
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 947 MB LOW NEAR 48N 170E WILL DRIFT TO 51N 169E AT 964 MB THU
MORNING...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 52N 162E AT 979 MB EARLY FRI MORNING. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND WEAKENS ON THU.

$$

PKZ411-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S OF 56N...E WIND 55 TO 65 KT. SEAS 30 FT BUILDING TO 37 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF 56N...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING
TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 32 TO 37 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 TO 29 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 15
TO 20 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 12 FT E OF 175W. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 18
TO 21 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 14 FT E OF 175W. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N. 
.THU...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT E OF 175W. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 TO 60 KT...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 21
TO 26 FT...EXCEPT 14 TO 18 FT E OF 175W. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 24
TO 28 FT...EXCEPT 14 TO 18 FT E OF 175W. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 22 FT...EXCEPT 14 TO 18 FT E OF
175W. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT S OF 56N. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON N OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT W OF 168W.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W OF 167W...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

529 
FZAK62 PAFC 170008
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 952 MB LOW NEAR 49N 170E WILL MOVE TO 52N 161E AT 981 MB THU NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL
BERING SEA AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. A 999 MB LOW NEAR 49N 166W THU
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 52N 163W AT 988 MB FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. N OF 56N...SEAS 25 TO 35 FT. 
S OF 56N...SEAS 34 TO 38 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 TO 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. W OF 176W...SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. 
E OF 176W...SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. W OF 176W...SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. E OF 176W...SEAS 
9 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF 168W...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. E OF 168W...NE 
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 56N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGEST FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP
IS A LARGE 937 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN SHORT ORDER. THE SURFACE
FEATURES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AS WELL AS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
EASTERN BERING SEA ARE WEAK TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GULF THAT
PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PART OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND A WEAK LOW
IN BRISTOL BAY. THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA THAT
HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT IS MOVING OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE JET STREAM COMES WEST TO EAST OFF OF JAPAN AND IS FEEDING THE
LARGE STORM SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE JET THEN WEAKENS SOME AS
IT TURNS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF THE STATE. THIS JET IS THE
REASON FOR THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IN SPITE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE ALL LOCKED ON VERY WELL TO THE LARGE
STORM SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. MODEL-TO-MODEL AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS STORM IS VERY GOOD. THE MODELS ARE
IMPROVING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
ISSUES TO RESOLVE. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CLOSING IN ON A COMMON
STRUCTURE AND TRACK OF THE LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE GFS IS STILL OUT ON ITS OWN WITH VARYING
SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES OF THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT BUT WITH THE NEWEST NAM RUN DEEPENING TO NEAR
THE ECMWF STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT FURTHER CONFIRMS THAT THE
NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOULD BE THE BEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ADAK
WESTWARD FOR OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW DUE TO A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW. PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
START OFF AS SNOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN TURN TO RAIN WITH
THE STRONG WARMING. THERE MAY BE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR A
SHORT TIME DUE TO BLOWING SNOW BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL
LAST VERY LONG IF IT DOES OCCUR.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WEAK LOW IN BRISTOL
BAY IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFTING TO BRING A LITTLE SNOWFALL INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME SNOW
REMAINING ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND ALEUTIAN RANGE BY MORNING.
AS THIS WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO TOMORROW IT WILL RUN INTO SOME
MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE
SUSITNA VALLEY INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL ENHANCE
THE SNOWFALL OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FOR THIS WEEKEND MODELS STILL SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED BY THE COMPLEX
UPPER LOW MEANDERING AROUND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AS ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND RUNS UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE...STORM TRACK WILL BE DIRECTED NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE AKPEN/EASTERN BERING SEA. OVERALL...EXPECTING A FAIRLY WARM AND
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191.
MARINE...GALE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 13