High Wind Watch 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

608 
WWAK71 PAFC 300103
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 PM AKST FRI NOV 29 2013

AKZ131-301415-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0022.131130T1800Z-131202T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0025.131201T0000Z-131202T0000Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
403 PM AKST FRI NOV 29 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM AKST
SUNDAY ...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM AKST
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
  INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH
  SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
  INCREASE GRADUALLY REACHING WARNING LEVELS IN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
  WINDS WILL PEAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. 
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ135-301415-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0022.131130T1800Z-131202T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0025.131201T0000Z-131202T0000Z/
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORDOVA
403 PM AKST FRI NOV 29 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM AKST
SUNDAY THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM AKST
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.

* WIND...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
  SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH BY SATURDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE
  GRADUALLY REACHING WARNING LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK
  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. 
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI NOV 29 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DOMINATES ALASKA
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THIS LOW IS ON A
SLOW EASTERLY TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR TO
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH AS IT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. OUT
WEST RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS HIGH IS
SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE EAST AS WELL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE ALCAN BORDER
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THE UPPER LEVEL PARENT LOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN HANDLING THE DETAILS OF THE VARIOUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE
GFS AND GEM SHOW THE STRONGEST OF THE TROUGHS SWEEPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT. BUT THE NAM AND EC AGREE
THAT THE STRONGEST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
HELPING TO MIX SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZATION...THE LATER NAM/EC SOLUTION WAS
USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARDS SHEMYA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY ALL AGREE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE BERING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARD THE
MAINLAND BEFORE THAT TIME. THE 18Z GFS STAMPED THE LOW NEAR 1005 MB
LATE SATURDAY. THEN THE 00Z GFS PUT IT DOWN NEAR 990 MB. AND NOW THE
06Z RUN PUSHES IT BACK UP TO 1000 MB. WHILE MOST MODELS BRING THE LOW
NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN ON SUNDAY...THE EC HOLDS IT SOUTH. WITH
THESE SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES...THE NAM REPRESENTED THE "MIDDLE
GROUND" SOLUTION AND WAS USED FOR THE FIRST 48HRS. AFTER THAT THE
FORECAST WAS HEDGED TOWARDS THE EC WITH A LARGE CHUNK  REMAINING
UNCHANGED UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION EMERGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...OUTFLOW WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW
FIRMLY IN CONTROL. IT HAS PUSHED MOST OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
REGION AND JUST ABOUT ALL STATIONS ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS EITHER AT OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE GAPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE WARMER WATER IS CREATING A STRONGER
GRADIENT. BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE UPPER JET TO ALIGN WITH THE SURFACE WINDS AND CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR -50F.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING IS SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE EAST AND WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
EASTERN BERING ON SATURDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
AREAS FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ABSENT OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO
TERRAIN. WAY OUT WEST A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND WILL MAKE IT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH IT WILL COME INCREASED
WINDS AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THE PATTERN IN A
VERY SIMILAR FASHION. THE BERING RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE MAINLAND
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IT REMAINS THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE MAINLAND DRY AND
COLD. IT'S NOT UNTIL THE RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN PUSH UP ITS WESTERN FLANK BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...OUT WEST...THE STORM TRACK WILL
RETURN TO THE BERING. THE FIRST LOW MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER NORTH PAC LOW STARTS TO TRACK
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEITHER OF THESE
STORMS LOOKS ESPECIALLY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY
BE A RETURN TO MORE WIND AND WAVES THAN WE'VE SEEN THIS WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 131 135.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 127
         GALE WARNING 126 128 130 131 132 172 174 178 185 411
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 139
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MSO/DWK NOV 13