High Wind Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

442 
WWAK72 PAFC 240024 CCA
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
422 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

...EARLY AUTUMN STORM TO TAKE AIM AT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO NEAR ADAK
LATE THIS EVENING AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS IT TRACKS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY.
THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AKZ185-241445-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0013.130924T2200Z-130925T0700Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0014.130924T1900Z-130925T0800Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
422 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS INCLUDING UNALASKA.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  INCREASING TO 75 MPH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...THE PASSAGE OF A WEATHER FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL 
  USHER IN A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION...WITH 
  THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
  TUESDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ181-241445-
/X.COR.PAFC.HW.A.0014.130925T0300Z-130925T1500Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
422 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 50 TO 60 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...THE PASSAGE OF A WEATHER FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL
  USHER IN A PERIOD WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW. 

&&

$$

139 
WWAK72 PAFC 241245
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AKZ181-241345-
/X.CAN.PAFC.HW.A.0014.130925T0300Z-130925T1500Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
445 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 75 MPH ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...THEREFORE THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AKZ187-250300-
/X.EXB.PAFC.HW.W.0014.130924T1245Z-130925T0300Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
445 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATION...THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ISLANDS INCLUDING ADAK.

* WIND...WEST TO NORTHWEST 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING THEN GRADUALLY
  DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ185-250300-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0014.130924T1900Z-130925T0800Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
445 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS INCLUDING UNALASKA.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  INCREASING TO 75 MPH LATE THIS MORNING.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
  THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

161 
WWAK72 PAFC 242147
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
147 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AKZ187-242300-
/X.CAN.PAFC.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130925T0300Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
147 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

$$

AKZ185-250800-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130925T0800Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
147 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS INCLUDING UNALASKA.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH 
  INCREASING TO 75 MPH LATE THIS MORNING. 

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON 
  THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

289 
WWAK72 PAFC 242332
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AKZ185-250045-
/X.CAN.PAFC.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130925T0800Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
332 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 
THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA HAS ELONGATED CAUSING WEAKER WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE NOW EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE MULTI-DAY STORM IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING FROM THE TOP-DOWN...WITH
THE UPPER LEVELS NOW JUST AN OPEN WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW FILLING
RAPIDLY. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD BACK ALL THE WAY TO UPPER
COOK INLET...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY SHORTWAVE HAS
BROUGHT THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON TO PARTS OF THE
ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREAS. A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. FURTHER WEST...A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 145 KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH THE GULF LOW FINALLY WEAKENING ALL EYES TURN TO THE NEXT MAJOR
STORM CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MODEL TRENDS IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE ALL BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE SPEED OF THIS LOW.
WHEN COMPARED TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM IS STILL FURTHER WEST THAN ALL OF THE
MODELS...MEANING THAT PERHAPS THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE SLOWED
DOWN EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. AS THIS LOW HEADS
EASTWARD...THE NAM BECOMES AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/WAVE INTO INTERIOR ALASKA AS OPPOSED TO MOVING INTO THE GULF.
THUS ON BOTH FORECAST DOMAINS THE GFS WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL...BOTH
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY. THE NEXT STORM THAT FORMS ON THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. ALL
THAT CAN BE CONFIDENTLY SAID AT THIS POINT IS THAT A VERY STRONG 200
KT JET STREAM WILL BE FUELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW THAT
WILL DROP TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE BOTTOM TO FALL OUT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITH SNOWFALL FROM TODAY...ALLOWING THE AREA TO EXPERIENCE A
HARD FREEZE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS ALSO INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AROUND UPPER COOK INLET
WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN THE HEAVIEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BERING SEA LOW. THE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ONCE AGAIN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS. CURRENTLY...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM WILL TOP OUT SHY OF WARNING
LEVELS...BUT IF MODELS TREND TOWARD THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION AND CARRY
MORE OF THE STORMS ENERGY INTO THE INTERIOR THESE SPEEDS WILL NEED TO
BE REVISED UPWARD.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BERING LOW GAINS STRENGTH. STRONG WINDS WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
COAST...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL STILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CENTER ITSELF WILL FOLLOW A
TRACK ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND INTO THE GULF...SIMILAR TO THE LAST
STORM...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST
PORTIONS OF THE STORM WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS THE BIGGEST IMPACT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOURCE
REGION FOR STRONG LOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FIRST LOW WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE PREVIOUS STORM. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO AGAIN BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THIS STORM. SOME KEY DIFFERENCES...THOUGH...ARE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED OF THE STORM ITSELF WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WHICH WILL
MAKE IT HARD FOR WINDS TO BECOME TOO EXTREME. ADDITIONALLY...THE
STORM WILL HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY PRIOR TO REACHING THE DUTCH
HARBOR AREA. BOTTOM LINE: EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BUT
LIKELY PEAK RIGHT AROUND HURRICANE FORCE (75 MPH)...THUS WILL BE
UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS
MENTIONED...THE STORM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EASTWARD FROM THE
DUTCH HARBOR AREA...BUT MAY HOLD STRENGTH LONG ENOUGH TO ALSO BRING
HIGH WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA...THUS WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS AS IF IT WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA THAT FEATURES STRONG
LOWS MOVING EASTWARD AND DROPPING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAINLAND WILL REBOUND TO NEAR-NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO BRING IN SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING MIDWEEK
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185
         HIGH WIND WATCH 181
MARINE...STORM 170 172
         GALE 120 130 132 150 155 160 165 171 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD SEP 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1018 AM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
09/23/2013  M2.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING. TEMPERATURE IS 34
            DEGREES.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     SNOW             6 NNE KENAI LAKE        60.30N 149.17W
09/23/2013  M2.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL OF 2.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WAS MEASURED.

&&

MCLAY