Gale Warning 83, NWS Anchorage, AK

285 
FZAK52 PAFC 201214
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 973 MB LOW 210 NM NORTHWEST OF UMNAK ISLAND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO
979 MB 270 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA MON MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TO 983 MB AS IT MOVES TO 270 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA TUE MORNING. A
965 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF UMNAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 983 MB 315 NM
SOUTH OF SAND POINT MON MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO 360 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND ON TUE MORNING AT THE SAME STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ150-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT
BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-210300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT W OF PORT MOLLER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-210300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BERING
SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT
PACIFIC SIDE.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 45 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-210300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT NEAR MORNING. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
STREAMING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE BERING AND SOUTH ALASKA.
TWO OTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ADJACENT TO THIS LOW...ONE
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
OTHER IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. TO THE EAST...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE TWO
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOWS
OVER THE PACIFIC. A FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS ARE KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN ALONG THE CHAIN. LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THAT STARTED LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ARE
CONTINUING THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH ALASKA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ARE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH STRONG WINDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSEST IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MULTIPLE
FRONTS THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA AND THEREFORE WERE
UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS NEAR
COLD BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS INTO THE BERING. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG AND GUSTY IN RESPONSE. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL
START OUT AS SNOW. SOME AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR BECOME A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW USHERS IN WARMER AIR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING WILL PUSH THE WEATHER FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN ACROSS KODIAK.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL. IN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN. THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM REMAINS IN EFFECT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
BERING. THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUES
THROUGH 9 PM TODAY. A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN TODAY AND THEN POSSIBLY
MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT. ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...PRECIPITATION WILL START
AS SNOW AND THEN AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREAS EAST OF
DILLINGHAM WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. FROM DILLINGHAM AND
WEST...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BE
SLOWER TO WARM. A SECOND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AND PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TODAY ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND WILL BRING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE BERING.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A BROAD LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL SPAN ACROSS SOUTH ALASKA AND THE
BERING AS THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MOVES EASTWARD BY MID WEEK.
WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
AND SNOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BY NEXT THURSDAY AN UPPER
RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SHORT
BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 195
         BLIZZARD WATCH 125
MARINE...STORM 138 185
         GALE 120 130 132 136 137 140 150 155 160 165 176 179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

KH JAN 13