Gale Warning 798, NWS Anchorage, AK

382 
FZAK51 PAFC 141539 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

UPDATED ZONES 125 AND 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. A WEAK LOW NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ119-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
640 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN 
THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES DIMINISHING TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-150300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-150300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-150300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
640 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-150300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-150300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-150300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

023 
FZAK51 PAFC 150014
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN
GULF THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ119-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-151500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-151500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 


$$

PKZ128-151500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 


$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ131-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-151500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS
6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-151500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-151500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-151500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST WED NOV 13 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS NOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. VERY WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE UP
THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO MAINLAND ALASKA.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG IS BEING OBSERVED FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY FROM SOUTHWEST
ALASKA INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA SO ANY
PRECIP THAT IS FALLING IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEGUN A VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL RISE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE BULK OF
MOISTURE WITH THE WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO INTERIOR
ALASKA OR IS GETTING HUNG UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
THEREFORE...SOUTHCENTRAL IS DRY AT THE MOMENT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY FOLLOWED
BY THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES
TO BE QPF AND PRECIP-TYPE WITH GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
AS THE VARIOUS FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS MUCH GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EACH MODEL IS QUITE A
LITTLE DIFFERENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT VERY GOOD. FOR
NOW WILL USE AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE 12Z RUNS. THERE WILL NO
DOUBT BE PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
TO CONSIDER ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THERE WILL BE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM COLD
TO WARM TO COLD DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. THE MELTING AND
FREEZING THAT GO ALONG WITH IT WILL CAUSE ICY AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL
BE FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE
FROM THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWEST TO WARM TO FREEZING OR ABOVE AND
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST. CONDITIONS ARE
DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND SOME VERY LIGHT OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP. WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL ALSO
INCREASE WHICH IN TURN WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER COOK
INLET. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WILL
PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MAT-SU TO AID IN GENERATING PRECIP
AND IN TRANSPORTING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.

FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA...DON'T EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ARCTIC
BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. BY THE TIME PRECIP
BEGINS IN ANCHORAGE MANY PARTS OF THE CITY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...RAIN FALLING ON TO SNOW AND ICE COVERED SURFACES CAN CAUSE
THE SAME IMPACT AS FREEZING RAIN. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS ITS LOOKING
LIKE A MESSY COMMUTE TOMORROW MORNING FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT-SU.

OTHER AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP...BUT
DON'T EXPECT NEARLY THE IMPACT AS ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN RAPIDLY CROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND ANY LIQUID WATER TO RE-FREEZE. THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ARRIVAL OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
GULF. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS IN
WHITTIER...SO PLAN TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
CROSSING THE BERING SEA WILL SURVIVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES
SOUTHCENTRAL SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. IF SO...THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WIDESPREAD FOG (DENSE IN MANY AREAS) WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL AS IT GETS TO BRISTOL
BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS. WARM AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT
BACK NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
IN WHEN PRECIP WILL MOVE BACK IN...BUT AS IT DOES THERE WILL BE A
VARIETY OF PRECIP-TYPES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN IN THE
SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AS YOU HEAD NORTHWARD.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM CROSSING THE BERING
WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE ARCTIC.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL THEN
LEAD TO A PATTERN CHANGE AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN WEATHER ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SETTLE IN. MODELS STILL INDICATE
A LOW SETTING UP IN THE GULF...BUT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION. IT IS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL TO SEE SOME SNOW
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 101 111 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 120 121 125 129 130 131 177 178 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 13