Gale Warning 785, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST FRI NOV 8 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN LOW OVER THE AREA SITS OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING FROM
THE WEST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD. EAST OF THIS
SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS RIDGING THEN STRETCHES ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THEN NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE IS
BRINGING IN WARMER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN THE SHORT AND MID TERMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE DEVELOPING LOW
NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ITS PROGRESSION EAST. IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THERE ARE MAJOR DISCREPANCIES WITH FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE
BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LONG FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR WITH IT WHICH WILL
BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN TO AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST...KENAI
PENINSULA AND INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. AREAS IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY
WILL SEE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AREAS MIXING WITH RAIN FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
WITH LOCATIONS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA TRANSITIONING THE RAIN OVER TO A WET SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
SNOW WILL THEN DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR LOCATIONS EXTENDING FROM THE SUSITNA
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL INTO NORTHERN LOCATIONS ALONG
THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THIS WILL BRING A CONCERN FOR ICY
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS AROUND THE Y-K DELTA ARE SEEING SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF LOCATIONS ARE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. WITH COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SLEETMUTE AREA THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INITIALLY BRING RAIN BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND TRANSITION TO
SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS DOWN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN IN AREAS AROUND BRISTOL BAY.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS BRINGING RAIN AND FOG TO THE AREA AS WELL AS STRONG
WINDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTERN PROGRESSION AND MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT...THEN TO THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT PASSES IT
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AIR WILL BE
USHERED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY...COLD AIR WILL
DROP OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THE OMEGA
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN...BUT A COLD SURGE DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HORIZON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD...155
MARINE...STORMS...411 412 413 177 178 181 185
         GALES...414 165 170 172 173
                 174 175 176 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK NOV 13