Gale Warning 766, NWS Anchorage, AK

546 
FZAK51 PAFC 022307
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND EARLY SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUN EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 30 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 35 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-031500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ127-031500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-031500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-031500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT S OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-031500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-031500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-031500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THE
LEADING FRONTAL BAND PUSHING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE IS
ANOTHER LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVING EAST. A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. AFTER 60 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST THE ECMWF IS MORE INSISTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS
IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF...AND
FURTHER EAST. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE THE MORE SOUTHERLY
JET LOCATION. THE ECMWF WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MODELS
OFFSET BY THE DISAGREEMENT ON THE GULF LOW DEVELOPMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY) WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INLAND AREAS. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ALEUTIAN/BERING LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS ITS PARENT LOW FILLS
AND LOSES ITS JET SUPPORT. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY "STANDARD" SYSTEM
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST AND THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
EXPECTED INLAND. ANOTHER SYSTEM (THE ONE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS) WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
BERING SEA TONIGHT. FRONTAL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH INLAND ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH...REACHING NORTON SOUND ABOUT THE TIME
IT DISSIPATES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THINGS SOMEWHAT CLOUDY AND
MOIST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST ON MONDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE THAT TREND AS IT MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN DISSIPATES
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALASKA
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST AND PUSH
INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172 174 176.
         GALE WARNING 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 173 175 177 178
                        179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 13