Gale Warning 734, NWS Anchorage, AK

471 
FZAK62 PAFC 021147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 MB LOW AT 55N 170W WILL MOVE INLAND JUST SE OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
AT 988 MB SUN MORNING. A 990 MB LOW AT 49N 180 LATE THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE TO 54N 174W SUN MORNING AT 986 MB. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 991 MB
AT 58N 161W MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 36 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N TO W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. E OF 176W...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S TO E WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW TO NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
$$

385 
FZAK62 PAFC 022346
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031500-
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR 58N 167W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND
AT 988 MB SUN MORNING. A 990 MB LOW AT 50N 178W WILL MOVE TO 54N 171W
SUN MORNING AT 988 MB...THEN WEAKEN TO 991 MB BEFORE MOVING INLAND
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT BECOMING NE WIND 25 KT W OF
176W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT W OF 176W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 57N...N WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. S OF 57N...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THE
LEADING FRONTAL BAND PUSHING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE IS
ANOTHER LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVING EAST. A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. AFTER 60 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST THE ECMWF IS MORE INSISTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS
IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF...AND
FURTHER EAST. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE THE MORE SOUTHERLY
JET LOCATION. THE ECMWF WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MODELS
OFFSET BY THE DISAGREEMENT ON THE GULF LOW DEVELOPMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY) WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INLAND AREAS. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ALEUTIAN/BERING LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS ITS PARENT LOW FILLS
AND LOSES ITS JET SUPPORT. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY "STANDARD" SYSTEM
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST AND THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
EXPECTED INLAND. ANOTHER SYSTEM (THE ONE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS) WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
BERING SEA TONIGHT. FRONTAL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH INLAND ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH...REACHING NORTON SOUND ABOUT THE TIME
IT DISSIPATES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THINGS SOMEWHAT CLOUDY AND
MOIST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST ON MONDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE THAT TREND AS IT MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN DISSIPATES
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALASKA
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST AND PUSH
INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172 174 176.
         GALE WARNING 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 173 175 177 178
                        179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 13