Gale Warning 761, NWS Anchorage, AK

632 
FZAK62 PAFC 301233
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS TODAY. A 997 MB LOW NEAR 50N 174E THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE 
NEAR 55N 177E AT 1000 MB SUN AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO A
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN BERING BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN...E OF 176E...SE WIND 30 KT. W OF 176E...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 010000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 50N 175E WILL MOVE TO 55N 177E SUN AFTERNOON. 
THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 1009 MB AS IT TRACKS TO EASTERN 
RUSSIA MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...N OF 56N...SE WIND 35 KT. S OF 56N...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N OF 56N...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. S OF 56N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 
TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 30 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING 
SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 011244
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020300-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 MB LOW NEAR 53N 176E WILL WEAKEN TO 1009 MB AS IT MOVES TO
EASTERN RUSSIA MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. S OF 56N...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 020000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 MB LOW NEAR 55N 177E MOVES TO EASTERN RUSSIA AND WEAKENS
TO 1005 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA
MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVES NORTH TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES TO 53N 170W AT 996 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
S OF 56N...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 13
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 1 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 
TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 021240
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 59N 177E MOVES OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA
TODAY THEN MOVES NORTH TUESDAY. A 995 MB LOW NEAR 51N 168W
MOVES TO 55N 177W AT 990 MB TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 2 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON DEC 2 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON DEC 2 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 2 2013

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1250 PM AKST FRI NOV 29 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE
WITH A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND AND A RIDGE OVER THE
HEART OF THE BERING SEA. THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE YUKON WHILE A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE CENTER DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. GAP WINDS ALONG THE
GULF COAST HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY BUT PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT WILL HELP
KICK THINGS UP AGAIN. ASIDE FROM THE GAP WINDS THE WEATHER IS VERY
QUIET FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO MAINLAND ALASKA. ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE BERING RIDGE A TROUGH IS MOVING OUT OF ASIA WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LONG
BUT NARROW FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM THE TROPICS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING OF UPPER LOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE WAVES MOVING
AROUND IT. THIS LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY OF
GAP WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE OTHER HAND MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE WITH DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER UPPER SHORT-WAVES PHASE INTO A
SINGLE TROUGH AND LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH GIVES INDICATIONS OF A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS IN LOWER OR PROTECTED VALLEYS
WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FRIGID.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY...SMALLER
AND MORE FOCUSED THAN THE TROUGH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER JET MAKING ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. LASTLY...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. ALL OF THIS POINTS
TO HIGH WINDS IN THE VALDEZ AREA AS WELL AS THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WATCHES TO WARNINGS WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GAP WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW WARNING LEVELS.
THE WIND EVENT WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARMER AIR MOVES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA UNTIL THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME FROZEN
PRECIP TO START BUT WITH LOTS OF WARM AIR MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN BY MID WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WARM MOIST AIR WHICH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN BERING WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL SET UP UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AS
WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN PRECIP MAY MAKE IT BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE EARLIEST THAT WILL BE IS LATE NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WARM AIR
MOVES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE THE STORM TRACK WILL SET UP
OUT WEST RESULTING IN ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AN INITIALLY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS MEANS PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...131 135.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY...131.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...127 128 130 131 132 178 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 126 127 128 129 130 139.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 13