Gale Warning 72, NWS Anchorage, AK

823 
FZAK52 PAFC 142008 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1105 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

CORRECTED AREA 165

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN TO 1003 MB THIS EVENING
AND DISSIPATE. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW FORMS 150 NM EAST OF UNALASKA
TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING BY WED. A 936 MB
PACIFIC LOW WILL BE CENTERED 760 NM SOUTHWEST OF KISKA TUE
MORNING...THEN TRACK TO AROUND 320 NM SOUTH OF ATTU AT 949 MB WED
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-150300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-150300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-150300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-150300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-150300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-150300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-150300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-150300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND
15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-150300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-150300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-150300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-150300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

399 
FZAK52 PAFC 150005
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 85 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WILL DRIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. A 936 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE MORNING WILL
MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA AT 952 MB WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-151500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-151500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-151500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-151500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-151500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-151500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-151500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-151500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT 
PACIFIC SIDE.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT 
PACIFIC SIDE.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-151500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 32 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-151500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
BERING SIDE...SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 27 FT BUILDING TO 33 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 36 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-151500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-151500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THIS IS NOT A SURPRISE CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG JET
AND THE FACT THAT THE FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH...WHERE THERE ARE FEW
OBSERVATIONS OF ANY TYPE. THE DISAGREEMENT EARLY ON IS FOCUSED ON
THE FORECAST SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST...AND ALSO THE
FASTEST TO WEAKEN THE LOW. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM...BUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. BEYOND
DAY TWO THE PATTERN IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE SO MODEL DIFFERENCES DON'T
AFFECT THE FORECAST TOO MUCH...BUT FROM 60 HOURS TO 84 HOURS THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE FAIRLY LARGE...AND THE ECMWF
WAS PREFERRED DUE TO ITS RECENT BETTER PERFORMANCE AND A SMOOTHER
TRANSITION TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THE
SUB-TROPICS. THIS LIES BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS A RESULT OF THIS TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MUCH PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
(MAINLY AS RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS).

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALASKA PENINSULA LOW WILL PROVIDE
THE FIRST BURST OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS
EVENING...THEN THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BURST LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES
RAPIDLY NORTH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE
MAIN JET STREAM SLIDES EAST INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. ON THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST ALLOWING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 145.
         FLOOD WATCH 101 111 121 125 131 135 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 136 138 140 150 155 160.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 13