Gale Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

991 
FZAK62 PAFC 150005
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 50N 180 WILL DRIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. 
A 936 MB LOW NEAR 43N 166E TUE MORNING WILL MOVE TO 49N 172E AT 
952 MB WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF 56N. 
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
N OF 56N...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. N OF 56N...SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
N OF 56N...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF 56 N...SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THIS IS NOT A SURPRISE CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG JET
AND THE FACT THAT THE FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH...WHERE THERE ARE FEW
OBSERVATIONS OF ANY TYPE. THE DISAGREEMENT EARLY ON IS FOCUSED ON
THE FORECAST SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST...AND ALSO THE
FASTEST TO WEAKEN THE LOW. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM...BUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. BEYOND
DAY TWO THE PATTERN IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE SO MODEL DIFFERENCES DON'T
AFFECT THE FORECAST TOO MUCH...BUT FROM 60 HOURS TO 84 HOURS THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE FAIRLY LARGE...AND THE ECMWF
WAS PREFERRED DUE TO ITS RECENT BETTER PERFORMANCE AND A SMOOTHER
TRANSITION TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THE
SUB-TROPICS. THIS LIES BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS A RESULT OF THIS TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MUCH PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
(MAINLY AS RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS).

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALASKA PENINSULA LOW WILL PROVIDE
THE FIRST BURST OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS
EVENING...THEN THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BURST LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES
RAPIDLY NORTH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE
MAIN JET STREAM SLIDES EAST INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. ON THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST ALLOWING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 145.
         FLOOD WATCH 101 111 121 125 131 135 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 136 138 140 150 155 160.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 13