Gale Warning 644, NWS Anchorage, AK

793 
FZAK61 PAFC 261129
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 26 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270300-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SAT EVENING. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND
TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT
ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
148W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

481 
FZAK61 PAFC 262334
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 26 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271500-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUN MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND SUN AFTERNOON. A
SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT AND TRACKS TO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT THIS EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

067 
FZAK61 PAFC 271143
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-280300-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE SECOND
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GULF MON EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-280300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-280300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

200 
FZAK61 PAFC 272337
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-281500-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TRACK INLAND THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES
TO THE EASTERN GULF BY MON EVENING. A 979 MB LOW NEAR 51N 159W WILL
MOVE TO 55N 155W AT 967 BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-281500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-281500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

408 
FZAK61 PAFC 281142
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-290300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THIS EVENING. A 983 MB LOW NEAR 50N 159W MON NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO
970 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 58N 150W TUE NIGHT.   

$$

PKZ351-290300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-290300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

972 
FZAK61 PAFC 282328
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-291500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 978 MB LOW NEAR 50N 158W EARLY TUE MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN TO
969 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 56N 151W TUE NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO 977 MB
NEAR 59N 147W THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-291500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-291500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

...GALE WARNING WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

121 
FZAK61 PAFC 290010 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

CORRECTED HEADLINE ZONE 352

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-291500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 978 MB LOW NEAR 50N 158W EARLY TUE MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN TO
969 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 56N 151W TUE NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO 977 MB
NEAR 59N 147W THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-291500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-291500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

617 
FZAK61 PAFC 291142
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 29 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-300300-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 50N 158W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB NEAR 57N 149W
WED MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO 986 MB NEAR 59N 145W WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-300300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 29 2013

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-300300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 29 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI OCT 25 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA WITH THE MASSIVE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HOLDING STRONG. THIS
PATTERN IS NOW SEVERAL WEEKS OLD ACROSS THE ALASKAN DOMAIN...AND
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE HAS KEPT TYPICAL FREEZE-UP
ON HOLD ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE MAINLAND. YESTERDAYS WEATHER-MAKING
LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT NOW BARELY RECOGNIZABLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND THE PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND IS WEAKENING AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW FALLS
APART. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST...WHILE SUN HAS BROKEN OUT FURTHER WEST ACROSS MUCH OF COOK
INLET AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE BY NO MEANS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE FIRST
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. ALL
MODELS DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE...CLIPPING THE FAR EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH SOME
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE FROM A DRAMATIC NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF
THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE TO INCLUDE MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PLUNGE THE REGION INTO WARM...WET...AND WINDY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVE UP THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FIRST FEATURE WILL BE A VERY STRONG WARM
FRONT THAT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND SATURDAY EVENING
AND MOVES ON TO SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOW WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT IS IN THE SAME BALLPARK AS THE
OTHER MODELS. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THINK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
IN A HURRY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
TURNAGAIN ARM WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ON MONDAY...THE BULK OF THE
BERING LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHWARD AND LIFTS INTO INTERIOR
ALASKA. WHILE ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SAME BASIC TREND...THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN
DOUBT. THE GEM/UKMET ARE BOTH TRYING TO DEVELOP A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AKPEN/KODIAK ISLAND REGION...WHILE THE NAM/EC HAVE
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK. SINCE THE
GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTION...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT IS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM/EC SOLUTION...AND WILL BE THE
BASIS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. OF NOTE...EVEN THE WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NAM/EC SOLUTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA ON MONDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY WITH
EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND COOK INLET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. AS WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...SOME FOG AROUND THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR IMPACT AT
THIS TIME. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY BEFORE AN ABRUPT
TRANSITION BACK TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND
WATCH WILL BE POSTED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
TURNAGAIN ARM AS WINDS SPIKE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. THE LULL BETWEEN THE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY STORMS WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A REPEAT
HIGH-WIND EVENT THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM ON MONDAY...LESS CLEAR IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL WITH THIS SECOND STORM. WILL NOT DRAMATICALLY ALTER THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME AS THE EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FUTURE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY.

SOUTHWEST...STRONG SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE CLIPS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WIND AND RAIN
ARRIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
REACH WARNING-LEVEL AT THIS TIME...BUT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
LIKELY THROUGH GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE STORM ON MONDAY WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT A REPEAT HIGH-WIND EVENT IS UNLIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA...THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN IS
EXTREMELY LIKELY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE CYCLE CONTINUES AS ONE LOW WEAKENS
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND ANOTHER STORM MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING WITH WIND AND RAIN. THE LOW
CENTER...CURRENTLY AROUND 982 MB...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
AT THE SAME STRENGTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GULF. GALE
FORCE WINDS AND RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG-RANGE MODELS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DOMAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE NOW
SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PARADE OF FORMER TROPICAL
SYSTEMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WHILE THE EXTREME WARMTH AND RAINFALL OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REPEAT...A CONTINUED PATTERN OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS LIKELY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101
MARINE...GALE 120 130 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 175
177 178 180 181
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD OCT 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKDT FRI OCT 25 2013

AKZ155-260600-

...HIGH WATER ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...

SOUTHERLY ONSHORE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA HAVE CAUSED HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS
IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS HAVE REACHED AS
FAR INLAND AS BETHEL ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER. OTHER COASTAL
LOCATIONS INCLUDING TOKSOOK BAY HAVE REPORTED HIGH WATER. WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECEDE THIS EVENING AND
RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH AND THE
TIDE RECEDES.

LUDWIG/DIXON