Gale Warning 588, NWS Anchorage, AK

717 
FZAK52 PAFC 191414 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
615 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

CORRECTED ZONE 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A 998 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 190 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THIS
EVENING AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 975 MB 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
PAUL ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON. BY SAT MORNING THE LOW WILL TRACK TO 70 NM
EAST OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLAND AT 969 MB.

$$

PKZ150-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT...BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-200300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-200300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT W OF PORT MOLLER.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT W OF PORT MOLLER.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT...EXCEPT 8 FT W OF PORT MOLLER. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-200300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-200300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW
WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BUILDING TO 45 KT BY NOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO
18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE MORNING.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-200300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND EAST. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND EAST. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-200300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

005 
FZAK52 PAFC 192258
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1005 MB LOW 190 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 973
MB 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF ON SAT MORNING. A 994 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 330 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA ON SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-201500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-201500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-201500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-201500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT
BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-201500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-201500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-201500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-201500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...S WIND 20 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT
BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-201500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-201500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-201500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-201500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

453 
FZAK52 PAFC 201145
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHEAST OF KISKA WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 974
MB 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF AT 970 MB ON SAT MORNING 110 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK. A
991 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 340 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
ON SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-210300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...FROM PORT MOLLER W...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW
35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-210300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 23 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-210300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

320 
FZAK52 PAFC 202302
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 971 MB LOW 120 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 90 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY AT 969 MB TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF. A 995 MB
LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA ON SAT AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED SEP 18 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOOK AT THE MORNING WEATHER MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT RAIN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS
NOW WEAKENED AND DRIFTED INTO THE INTERIOR...WHILE A COLD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDED DOWN FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA IS
SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
RESULTED IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN FORMING OVER EAST ANCHORAGE AND
THE MAT-SU VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW BEING REPLACED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORMING OVER COOK INLET AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ABOVE 2000-2500 FT IN THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION OBSERVED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TOPPED BY A RELATIVELY ZONAL 140 KT JET REMAINS OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA. A DISSIPATING FRONT MOVED OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING...BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM
WEAKENING OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA OF RUSSIA ARE DIMINISHING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPING DEEP IN THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL WAVES COMBINING AT THIS MOMENT...AND THE MODELS ALL AGREE
THAT EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL GET MORE ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS HAVE ALL SHOWED A FASTER/FURTHER NORTH TRACK WITH THE LOW ONCE
IT DEVELOPS...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE STRONG 120 KT
SOUTH-TO-NORTH JET THAT WILL BE CLIMBING OUT OF THIS TROUGH. THE NAM
IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...LAGGING BEHIND
THE CONSENSUS...AND WAS REMOVED FROM CONSIDERATION FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR ENTRAINED BY THE SYSTEM IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND IS HAVING AN
IMPACT ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE LOW (AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD) WILL
BECOME. THE ECMWF IS PULLING IN THE MOST COLD AND AS A RESULT HAS THE
STRONGEST SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE THE NAM IS ON THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM. UNTIL SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPS...WILL STICK
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND VALDEZ/CORDOVA THAT LAST PLACES TO SEE DRYING
CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER UPPER COOK INLET WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT GRADUALLY SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO
CLEAR...AND LINGER ON WEST-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES THE LONGEST...BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY. MANY PLACES
WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KENAI PENINSULA DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BERING SEA STORM WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
LARGELY TO THE COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING EASILY INTO THE
20S OVER INTERIOR AREAS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT AND
SOME COLD AIR FILTERING DOWN THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. MOST ALEUTIAN
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AS THIS STORM GOES PAST. WITH
THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK AS WELL AS THE VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF
THE STORM ITSELF...EXPECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE STRONGER
WINDS THAN OTHER AREAS. AT THIS POINT THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS BLOWING FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE BERING SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN ALASKA COULD TRANSITION RETURN TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE THE ACTIVE
STORM TRACK AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE BERING SEA
REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD SEP 13