Gale Warning 532, NWS Anchorage, AK

725 
FZAK61 PAFC 191149
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. A 972 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 54N 138W 
THU EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN TO 985 MB NEAR 58N 140W FRI EVENING. 
BY SAT MORNING THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE.
$$

PKZ351-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 20 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S TO W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

974 
FZAK61 PAFC 192338
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
LATE FRI NIGHT. A 973 MB LOW NEAR 51N 137W WILL WEAKEN TO 986 MB NEAR
57N 138W FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND FRI EVENING. A 973 MB LOW NEAR
56N 167W FRI AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB NEAR 57N 147W ON SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S BY MORNING. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S BY MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

467 
FZAK61 PAFC 201147
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A 976 MB LOW NEAR 56N 138W WILL WEAKEN 
TO 985 MB NEAR 58N 138W THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND THIS 
EVENING. A 970 MB LOW NEAR 56N 154W SAT MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN 
TO 967 MB NEAR 56N 142W ON SUNDAY MIDDAY.
$$

PKZ351-210300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE TO NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-210300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE TO SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW 35 TO 45 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

537 
FZAK61 PAFC 202311
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A 970 MB LOW NEAR 56N 159W THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO
57N 146W AT 966 MB SAT AFTERNOON THEN TO 58N 143W AT 970 MB SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N OF 58N...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S OF 58N...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W OF 148W...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO NW
45 KT. E OF 148W...VARIABLE WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW 30 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

488 
FZAK61 PAFC 211149
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 21 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220300-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 968 MB LOW NEAR 56N 154W WILL MOVE TO 57N 143W AT 965 MB THIS
EVENING...THEN TRACK TO NEAR 57N 157W AT 982 MB MONDAY MORNING. 
$$

PKZ351-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W OF 148W...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE
EVENING. E OF 148W...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 21 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
148W...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED SEP 18 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOOK AT THE MORNING WEATHER MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT RAIN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS
NOW WEAKENED AND DRIFTED INTO THE INTERIOR...WHILE A COLD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDED DOWN FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA IS
SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
RESULTED IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN FORMING OVER EAST ANCHORAGE AND
THE MAT-SU VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW BEING REPLACED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORMING OVER COOK INLET AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ABOVE 2000-2500 FT IN THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION OBSERVED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TOPPED BY A RELATIVELY ZONAL 140 KT JET REMAINS OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA. A DISSIPATING FRONT MOVED OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING...BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM
WEAKENING OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA OF RUSSIA ARE DIMINISHING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPING DEEP IN THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL WAVES COMBINING AT THIS MOMENT...AND THE MODELS ALL AGREE
THAT EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL GET MORE ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS HAVE ALL SHOWED A FASTER/FURTHER NORTH TRACK WITH THE LOW ONCE
IT DEVELOPS...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE STRONG 120 KT
SOUTH-TO-NORTH JET THAT WILL BE CLIMBING OUT OF THIS TROUGH. THE NAM
IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...LAGGING BEHIND
THE CONSENSUS...AND WAS REMOVED FROM CONSIDERATION FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR ENTRAINED BY THE SYSTEM IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND IS HAVING AN
IMPACT ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE LOW (AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD) WILL
BECOME. THE ECMWF IS PULLING IN THE MOST COLD AND AS A RESULT HAS THE
STRONGEST SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE THE NAM IS ON THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM. UNTIL SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPS...WILL STICK
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND VALDEZ/CORDOVA THAT LAST PLACES TO SEE DRYING
CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER UPPER COOK INLET WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT GRADUALLY SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO
CLEAR...AND LINGER ON WEST-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES THE LONGEST...BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY. MANY PLACES
WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KENAI PENINSULA DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BERING SEA STORM WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
LARGELY TO THE COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING EASILY INTO THE
20S OVER INTERIOR AREAS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT AND
SOME COLD AIR FILTERING DOWN THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. MOST ALEUTIAN
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AS THIS STORM GOES PAST. WITH
THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK AS WELL AS THE VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF
THE STORM ITSELF...EXPECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE STRONGER
WINDS THAN OTHER AREAS. AT THIS POINT THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS BLOWING FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE BERING SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN ALASKA COULD TRANSITION RETURN TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE THE ACTIVE
STORM TRACK AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE BERING SEA
REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD SEP 13