Gale Warning 582, NWS Anchorage, AK

769 
FZAK52 PAFC 121154 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...CORRECTED
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

CORRECTED TYPO ZONE 180

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI WILL MOVE TO 140 NM SOUTH OF
SITKINAK FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 1005 MB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY AND SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA FROM THE WEST FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE EVENING. FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 30 KT E OF PORT MOLLER IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT W OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 8 FT W OF
PORT MOLLER AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT W OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE MORNING.
PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO
13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT...EXCEPT 18 FT E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT NW 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 12 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED SEP 11 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH A
SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST RUSSIA. THERE IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS.
THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER 60 HOURS...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE
NAM...UKMET AND GEM. THIS IS FAIRLY MINOR...AND WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
HIGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REACH SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND SOUTH CENTRAL ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE RUSSIAN LOW WILL MOVE EAST...AND
ENTER NORTHWEST ALASKA FRI MORNING. THESE TWO LOWS WILL MOVE EAST
TOGETHER (THOUGH NOT PHASING UP) AND BOTH BE ALONG 150 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE SATURDAY MORNING. THE ALEUTIAN LOW IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY
STRONG...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND INTO THE GULF.

THE BERING SEA HIGH WILL FOLLOW THESE LOWS..AND WILL HAVE MIGRATED
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON FRIDAY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT (MUCH WEAKER)
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON THURSDAY...BUT SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND POSSIBLY ONLY MAKE IT
TO THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY THOUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST ALASKA COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172.
         GALE WARNING 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 175 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 13