Gale Warning 557, NWS Anchorage, AK

894 
FZAK52 PAFC 032342
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB NEAR HOOPER BAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY
THU AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 1004 MB. A 990 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 370
NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK THU AFTERNOON. 
VENIAMINOF VOLCANO 40 NM WEST OF CHIGNIK IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE.
$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF PORT MOLLER.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND S...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND S...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. N OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND S...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...4 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 13 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E. SEAS
12 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NW 15 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND E. SEAS 11 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MASSIVE STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS BETWEEN EASTERN RUSSIA
AND WESTERN AK THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND. RIDGES ARE OVER THE ALCAN AND THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH A LOW JUST WEST OF BRISTOL BAY AND RIDGES OVER KAMCHATKA AND
SOUTHEAST AK. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF IS BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND A SECOND FRONT IS
DEVELOPING WITH A WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. A THIRD FRONT IS
FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
DECAY OF THE BERING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT OVER THE GULF...RESPONSIBLE FOR ABUNDANT RAINFALL
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF AND
DISSIPATE WED MORNING. THE SECOND FRONT...DEVELOPING WITH A WAVE
MOVING AROUND THE BERING LOW...WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WED MORNING. A
THIRD FRONT...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN BERING ON YET
ANOTHER WAVE...WILL SPREAD SOME COLD ADVECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN ON WED. THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING LOW WILL DISSIPATE
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THU EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND NEW FEATURES BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WITHIN ITS STRUCTURE. ON WED A LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
40N...INTENSIFIES...AND CURVES NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRI. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER LOW FORMS OVER JAPAN AND REACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ON FRI. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACKS OF THESE NEW LOWS.

THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS AND EC IN THE SHORT TERM WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE...AND THEN GFS WITH SOME WPC IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT
SERIES OF LOWS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ON COLD ADVECTION. THESE SHOULD THEN PERSIST INTO FRI.

FOR SW AK...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
LINGER INTO THU AS THE BERING LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS. ON FRI...RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AS THE NEXT LOW
APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO
FRONTS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WED. AS THE FRONTS
DISSIPATE RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY...ESPECIALLY INLAND INTO THU.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH THE KODIAK LOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE WEST WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE LOW FORMING OVER JAPAN SKIRTS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, DURING THE SAME PERIODS SW AK AND SE OF
THE AK RANGE REMAIN WET WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 125 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS SEP 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
630 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

AKZ161-181-032100

...MINOR ASH FALL POSSIBLE FROM PORT HEIDEN TO PILOT POINT...

OBSERVED SEISMIC ACTIVITY INDICATES THAT VENIAMINOF VOLCANO CONTINUES
TO ERUPT WITH MINOR ASH EMISSIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT
THE ASH TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT ASHFALL TO THE AREA BETWEEN PORT HEIDEN AND PILOT POINT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.