Gale Warning 519, NWS Anchorage, AK

798 
FZAK62 PAFC 032343
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB AT 61N 166W WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO 63N 170W BY THU AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN TO 1004 MB. A 990 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 51N 155W THU
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N TO W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MASSIVE STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS BETWEEN EASTERN RUSSIA
AND WESTERN AK THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND. RIDGES ARE OVER THE ALCAN AND THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH A LOW JUST WEST OF BRISTOL BAY AND RIDGES OVER KAMCHATKA AND
SOUTHEAST AK. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF IS BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND A SECOND FRONT IS
DEVELOPING WITH A WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. A THIRD FRONT IS
FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
DECAY OF THE BERING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT OVER THE GULF...RESPONSIBLE FOR ABUNDANT RAINFALL
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF AND
DISSIPATE WED MORNING. THE SECOND FRONT...DEVELOPING WITH A WAVE
MOVING AROUND THE BERING LOW...WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WED MORNING. A
THIRD FRONT...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN BERING ON YET
ANOTHER WAVE...WILL SPREAD SOME COLD ADVECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN ON WED. THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING LOW WILL DISSIPATE
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THU EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND NEW FEATURES BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WITHIN ITS STRUCTURE. ON WED A LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
40N...INTENSIFIES...AND CURVES NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRI. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER LOW FORMS OVER JAPAN AND REACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ON FRI. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACKS OF THESE NEW LOWS.

THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS AND EC IN THE SHORT TERM WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE...AND THEN GFS WITH SOME WPC IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT
SERIES OF LOWS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ON COLD ADVECTION. THESE SHOULD THEN PERSIST INTO FRI.

FOR SW AK...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
LINGER INTO THU AS THE BERING LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS. ON FRI...RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AS THE NEXT LOW
APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO
FRONTS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WED. AS THE FRONTS
DISSIPATE RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY...ESPECIALLY INLAND INTO THU.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH THE KODIAK LOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE WEST WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE LOW FORMING OVER JAPAN SKIRTS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, DURING THE SAME PERIODS SW AK AND SE OF
THE AK RANGE REMAIN WET WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 125 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS SEP 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
630 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

AKZ161-181-032100

...MINOR ASH FALL POSSIBLE FROM PORT HEIDEN TO PILOT POINT...

OBSERVED SEISMIC ACTIVITY INDICATES THAT VENIAMINOF VOLCANO CONTINUES
TO ERUPT WITH MINOR ASH EMISSIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT
THE ASH TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT ASHFALL TO THE AREA BETWEEN PORT HEIDEN AND PILOT POINT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.