Gale Warning 541, NWS Anchorage, AK

122 
FZAK62 PAFC 241149
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250300-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 MB LOW NEAR 53N 176W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 165W AT 976 MB EARLY
WED MORNING AND THEN MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND WHILE WEAKENING TO 997
MB BY EARLY THU MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N
171E AT 990 MB EARLY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF 176W...NW WIND 45 KT. E OF 176W...SE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

205 
FZAK62 PAFC 242317
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUE EVENING AND REACH
THE NORTH GULF COAST BY WED MORNING. A 988 MB LOW NEAR 58N 160W WED
AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 998 MB NEAR 59N 147W THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE MULTI-DAY STORM IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING FROM THE TOP-DOWN...WITH
THE UPPER LEVELS NOW JUST AN OPEN WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW FILLING
RAPIDLY. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD BACK ALL THE WAY TO UPPER
COOK INLET...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY SHORTWAVE HAS
BROUGHT THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON TO PARTS OF THE
ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREAS. A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. FURTHER WEST...A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 145 KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH THE GULF LOW FINALLY WEAKENING ALL EYES TURN TO THE NEXT MAJOR
STORM CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MODEL TRENDS IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE ALL BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE SPEED OF THIS LOW.
WHEN COMPARED TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM IS STILL FURTHER WEST THAN ALL OF THE
MODELS...MEANING THAT PERHAPS THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE SLOWED
DOWN EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. AS THIS LOW HEADS
EASTWARD...THE NAM BECOMES AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/WAVE INTO INTERIOR ALASKA AS OPPOSED TO MOVING INTO THE GULF.
THUS ON BOTH FORECAST DOMAINS THE GFS WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL...BOTH
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY. THE NEXT STORM THAT FORMS ON THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. ALL
THAT CAN BE CONFIDENTLY SAID AT THIS POINT IS THAT A VERY STRONG 200
KT JET STREAM WILL BE FUELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW THAT
WILL DROP TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE BOTTOM TO FALL OUT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITH SNOWFALL FROM TODAY...ALLOWING THE AREA TO EXPERIENCE A
HARD FREEZE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS ALSO INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AROUND UPPER COOK INLET
WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN THE HEAVIEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BERING SEA LOW. THE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ONCE AGAIN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS. CURRENTLY...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM WILL TOP OUT SHY OF WARNING
LEVELS...BUT IF MODELS TREND TOWARD THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION AND CARRY
MORE OF THE STORMS ENERGY INTO THE INTERIOR THESE SPEEDS WILL NEED TO
BE REVISED UPWARD.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BERING LOW GAINS STRENGTH. STRONG WINDS WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
COAST...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL STILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CENTER ITSELF WILL FOLLOW A
TRACK ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND INTO THE GULF...SIMILAR TO THE LAST
STORM...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST
PORTIONS OF THE STORM WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS THE BIGGEST IMPACT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOURCE
REGION FOR STRONG LOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FIRST LOW WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE PREVIOUS STORM. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO AGAIN BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THIS STORM. SOME KEY DIFFERENCES...THOUGH...ARE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED OF THE STORM ITSELF WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WHICH WILL
MAKE IT HARD FOR WINDS TO BECOME TOO EXTREME. ADDITIONALLY...THE
STORM WILL HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY PRIOR TO REACHING THE DUTCH
HARBOR AREA. BOTTOM LINE: EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BUT
LIKELY PEAK RIGHT AROUND HURRICANE FORCE (75 MPH)...THUS WILL BE
UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS
MENTIONED...THE STORM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EASTWARD FROM THE
DUTCH HARBOR AREA...BUT MAY HOLD STRENGTH LONG ENOUGH TO ALSO BRING
HIGH WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA...THUS WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS AS IF IT WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA THAT FEATURES STRONG
LOWS MOVING EASTWARD AND DROPPING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAINLAND WILL REBOUND TO NEAR-NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO BRING IN SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING MIDWEEK
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185
         HIGH WIND WATCH 181
MARINE...STORM 170 172
         GALE 120 130 132 150 155 160 165 171 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD SEP 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1018 AM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
09/23/2013  M2.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING. TEMPERATURE IS 34
            DEGREES.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     SNOW             6 NNE KENAI LAKE        60.30N 149.17W
09/23/2013  M2.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL OF 2.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WAS MEASURED.

&&

MCLAY